December 3, 2011
OUTCOME: Cotto by TKO
ANDY'S PICK: Margarito by late TKO
THE BET:
2.0 Units on Margarito to Win at +200
1.0 Units on Margarito by KO at +325
THE PAYOUT:
-3.0 Units
If there's one thing about rematches i've learned over the years its that the guy who won the first fight almost always wins the next. However, this rule doesn't necessarily apply when illegal handwraps are involved. But despite the big hubbub surrounding Margarito's alleged cheating I find no reason to believe that the supposed plaster hand wraps in the first fight were the deciding factor for the outcome. Even if Margarito did cheat, which he most likely did, I picked him to win the first fight and I'm picking him to win the second. Here's why:
1.) Cotto cannot fight going backwards. He has proved this time and time again and with a pressure fighter like Margarito he is at a huge disadvatage.
2.) Cotto has stamina issues in the late rounds. Against a freight train like Margarito this is a death sentence. Add Margarito's excellent body work to the equation and it gets even worse.
3.) Cotto can't hurt Margarito. In the first fight he hit him with everything and anything in his arsenal and Margarito never flinched. If anything Cotto's power has diminished since his horrible beatings at the hands of Pacquiao and Margarito. He barely was able to stop a washed up Mayorga and he couldn't even hurt Yuri Foreman.
4.) Cotto has a suspect chin. Although he is a true warrior, Cotto gets hurt a lot. Margarito hits hard and often. Can Cotto withstand another 12 round onslaught? I'd bet against it.
5.) Margarito is the naturally bigger man. Although Cotto is stockier and more compact, Margarito enjoys a 4 inch height advantage and probably walks around at 165.
The one variable in this fight will be who is more shop worn. Both men have been on the receiving end of hellacious beatings over the past few years and both have certainly been damaged. My bet is Cotto is worse for wear and it will show tonight. I expect this fight to play out almost identically to the first. Sure its possible that Cotto can survive the 12 rounds and eke out a close decision but my money is against it.
The way to bet this fight is as follows. Put 2 Units on Margarito to win straight at +200 and 1 Unit on the knockout at +325. Its certainly conceivable this fight can go to a close decision and therefore I wouldn't want to put all my bread on a knockout. However the fight is in New York and based on Margarito's popoularity I highly doubt he will get a close nod. However the odds on a knockout don't offer a big enough premium over the straight bet to warrant the full boat. Good luck!
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