July 2, 2011
OUTCOME: Klitschko by Decision
ANDY'S PICK: Haye by KO
THE BET:
3.0 Units on Haye to win at +200
THE PAYOUT:
-3.0 Units
If my memory serves me I believe the last good heavyweight fight took place before some of my readers were born. The names Holyfield, Bowe, Foreman and Tyson were probably involved and you can safely assume that it wasn't in the most recent decade and barely made it into the decade before that. Will Haye/Klitschko give the heavyweight division the kickstart it has needed for the better part of 20 years? The answer is absolutely not. However, beggars can't be choosers and I for one am going to allow myself to be excited for this ecellent heavyweight matchup.
.
While Vladimir Klitschko has appeared to be invinvible for the past 7 years, since his KO loss to Lamon Brewster he has fought a long line of pretenders, washed up contenders and nobodys. Perhaps his most impressive victory in that stretch was six years ago when he got off the canvas three times to win a unanimous decision agianst the then hot contender, Samuel Peter. However, Peter was later exposed as a one dimensional brawler with a bad work ethic. Simply put there has been no one for Vlad to fight, except for his brother, and we all know that match will never happen. On a side note, Vitali would win that match with one arm tied behind his back.
.
So what about David Haye?
.
Well for one thing he has proved he can fight well against very big men. He illustrated this in dramatic fashion against Audley Harrison in his most recent outing and demonstrated it beyond a resonable doubt against the circus giant, Valuev. While Vlad is clearly a better fighter than both of these men he still has many of the attributes of a large, lumbering heavyweight. He's not all that fast, not tremendously athletic, lacks a strong chin and doesn't know how to adjust his gameplan midfight. His big edge lies in his hammering jab. Of course there is a pretty damn good right hand behind that jab but he is only a two punch fighter. Haye on the other hand is extremely fast and athletic for a big man and is an artist in the ring, making adjustment, showing angles and mixing up a variety of hard punches. The one thing he shares with Vlad is a suspect chin. However, he has shown time and time again (see Barret, Mormeck) and that he can get up from a knockdown and win a fight. So while he shares chinniness with Vlad, he is far tougher than him. In the face of overwhelming force, Vlad folds. While you can make a good case that Vlad has more power than Haye, their respective KO percentages at 84% to 88% tell a different story. Haye has tremendous power and while it might not be quite as much as Vlad's per square inch its more than Lamon Brewster and Corrie Sanders combined.
.
With his speed and mobility, Haye will be able to do what no other fighter has done in the past few years, which is get inside the Klitschko jab. While Vlad has been tought well by Manny Steward on the use of clinching, Haye will be able to inflict damage before the hugging begins. Once Haye touches Vlad with the first big shot of the fight you will see the Russian backpedal out of danger, putting himself at even greater risk for a followup combination assault. If Haye can avoid the Klitschko right hand, which I believe he can, he will win this fight in dramatic knockout fashion and I don't think it will take him long. I would guess it will be inside six rounds.
.
The way to bet this fight is simple. 3 Units on Haye to Win at +200. The odds on a knockout are +220, thereby eliminating that option as a meaningful value. While Klitschko can win this fight by excessive hugging or catching Haye with a monster right hand, I suspect he will be in over his head in this bout and will succumb early. Good luck!
Comments