June 4, 2011
OUTCOME: Froch by Decision
ANDY'S PICK: Froch by Decision - LOCK OF THE MONTH!
THE BET:
6.0 Units on Froch by Decision at -150
THE PAYOUT:
4.0 Units
In this battle for bronze in the Super 6 tourney it looks like we have all the makings of an "out with the old and in with the new" type of evening. While Glen Johnson has fought brilliantly into his forties, he is no Bernard Hopkins. Where Hopkins exhibits ring mastery, Johnson is simply a workhorse. He knows how to rough you up on the inside, keep up a gruelling pace and avoid being on the receiving end of the really big shots. This unfortunately will not be enough to stop Carl Froch. Froch simply has too much in his arsenal for the aging Johnson. In addition to being a skilled boxer puncher, Froch posseses a worldclass chin, and this asset is what will prevent Johnson from having any shot of winning this fight. Add to this the stamina sapping move in weight down to 168 for Johnson and we have what seems to be the lock of the month.
The way I see this playing out is as follows. Johnson will have his moments in the first half of the fight, luring Froch into the inside game and giving almost as much as he takes. However, by the later rounds, Johnson will begin to get gassed by the volume of punches coming from Froch and he will no longer be able to dictate where the fight is fought. At this point Froch will begin hurting him from the outside and landing combinations at will. While Johnson will take an enormous amount of punishment in the second half of the fight, his sturdy chin and overall tougness will keep him from suffering a knockout. Meanwhile Froch will coast to a relatively easy unanimous decision.
The way to bet this fight is simple. 6 Units on Froch by Decision at -150. Both fighters have tremendous chins so a knockout is nearly out of the question. Good luck!
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