May 7, 2011
OUTCOME: Pacquiao by Decision
ANDY'S PICK: Pacquiao by Decision
THE BET:
3.0 Units on Pacquiao by Decision at +220
0.5 Units Hedge on a Mosley KO in first 3 Rounds at +1700
THE PAYOUT:
6.1 Units
Everytime these "superfight" mismatches come down the pipe I, as well as most of the boxing community, get slightly brainwashed in favor of the underdog. This time was no different as I found myself last week wondering, hey maybe the old codger can pull it off. Then in the past few days I shook those thoughts out of my my head not unlike a cartoon character who rearranges his face after having it mis-shapen by a falling anvil. The fact of the matter is Mosley is going to take a drubbing in this fight, most likely the worst drubbing he has ever taken. Sure, he has a puncher's chance but you can say that about any fight. I just hope he doesn't get hurt.
There are several variables that make the winner of this fight almost a foregone conclusion. A recent resume comparison is the most glaring. Since his destruction of a badly out of shape and weight shrunken Margarito two and half years ago, Mosley was whipped like a badly behaved schoolboy by Mayweather and fought to a draw with Sergio Mora, yes the Sergio Mora of The Contender TV series. In that same timeframe, Pacquiao destroyed a supremely conditioned Margarito, pummeled Cotto, made a mockery of Josh Clottey and practically committed homicide against Ricky Hatton.
The next factor is age. Sure there are some ageless wonders floating around these days, Bernard Hopkins being the best example, but 99.9% of fighters in the lighter weights are totally spent by their late 30's. Mosley will turn 40 this summer. Against a prime Pacquiao he stands no chance on age alone.
Then we turn to style matchup. Mosley hates movers. He likes a guy to just stand in front of him and trade. He always wins against such an opponent (Mayorga, Margarito, Vargas, etc.). However, when he has a moving target to contend with its a totally different story. He often seems baffled. If there's anyone who is a mover its Pacquiao. Fighters often find Pacquiao standing behind them after he lands a combination only to turn around and take another few pops right on the chin. Mosley's defense also leaves a lot to be desired and, as we've seen before, this is a death sentence against Pacquiao. Aside from the detail that Pacquiao is hittable and Mosley does still have some dynamite in that right hand, this is a terrible matchup for Sugar Shane.
The last point I'd like to make focuses on Mosley's strength, which unfortunately in this fight will only lead to his likely hospitalization. He is tough as all hell and is one of the fiercest competitors on the planet. Short of the referee or his corner stopping the bout, Mosley will fight to the death and due to his granite chin will most likely not get knocked down until then. Add to this the size comparison between the two fighters and Pacquiao might just not have enough powder to put Sugar on his back. Remember, Mosley has not been knocked down in almost 10 years and has fought some serious bangers along the way.
I see the early rounds as far more competitive than some recent Pacquiao fights. Mosley will be aggressive in these frames, knowing that his only chance to win is an early knockout. However, after Pacquiao weathers the early storm he will start doing what he does best, landing clean combinations. Mosley will slowly become a punching bag as his 39 year old legs begin to fail him. In the end he will make it to the finish line only because of his chin, his size and his heart.
The way to bet this fight is 3 Units on Pacquiao by decision at +220. I recommend a hedge bet of 0.5 Units on a Mosley knockout in the first 3 rounds at +1700. Mosley's only chance is to take Pacquiao out early. After the third I think this boat will have sailed. GOOD LUCK!!
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