May 21, 2011
OUTCOME: Hopkins by Decision
ANDY'S PICK: Hopkins by Decision
THE BET:
3.0 Units on Hopkins by Decision at +210
THE PAYOUT:
6.3 Units
Ok before I even begin to pontificate about this rematch let's just throw Hopkins' age out of the equation. He's simply a freak of nature, and no matter how many times people remind him how old he is he just refuses to act his age.
My belief is that Hopkins will pick up right where he left off in the first fight. The two knockdowns he suffered in the first fight caught him off guard while he was feeling out Pascal. Once he figured him out, he proceeded to dominate the rest of the fight. While the judges disagreed, I had Bernard winning every single round after the 2nd knockdown. All one needs to do is look at the Compubox stats which showed Hopkins outlanding Pascal in power punches at an astounding 2 to 1 ratio.
The way I see this fight playing out is simply a continuation of the 12th round in the first fight. Hopkins understands now that Pascal is a one trick pony. He fights only in bursts and Hopkins knows exactly how to neutralize that tactic. He can time him, counter and clinch. I expect Hopkins to dominate from the opening bell. When Pascal realizes what he's got himself into he will start to use his legs to avoid engagement. This will only further compound his problems as it will cause him to tire. At the end of the first fight, the 46 year old Hopkins was by far the frehser fighter and Pascal, who is known to have late round stamina issues was nearly out on his feet. While Hopkins will most likely win almost every round of the fight I think Pascal will find a way to remain standing at the final bell. This will be as a result of his iron chin, his evasive tactics and Hopkins' lack of one punch KO power.
The way to bet this fight is simple. 3 Units on Hopkins by Decision at +210. While I think its entirely possible that Hopkins could force Pascal to quit its very hard to see that happening. If you want to play it safe feel free to just bet Hopkins straight at +110, but up your wager to 5 Units. Good luck!
Comments