April 15, 2011
OUTCOME: Ortiz by Decision
ANDY'S PICK: Ortiz by Decision
THE BET:
1.0 Units on Ortiz to Win at +300
THE PAYOUT:
3.0 Units
In an action packed Saturday night of boxing I think this matchup will prove to be the most entertaining. These young sluggers have a lot to prove and both know how critical this bout is for their respective futures in the sport.
I was very surprised to see the opening money line at +300 for Ortiz. While he had a mental and physical collapse against Maidana, I don't think there is anyone in the division (jr. welter) aside for perhaps Tim Bradley who makes Vicious Victor that heavy an underdog. I think the oddsmakers are focusing too much on Ortiz's shortcomings and not considering how well he matches up with Berto.
While Ortiz doesn't boast a huge resume, he did dominate the super-rugged Maidana for several rounds before crumbling in the 6th. And to be honest, that to me is more impressive than anything Berto has done. The only real gem on Berto's resume is a very close decision win over Luis Collazo, a fight where Berto was in serious trouble and in my opinion should have come out on the losing end.
The Collazo and Maidana fights might prove to be very telling tomorrow night. Ortiz, like Collazo can box and move when necessary. This could give Berto a lot of trouble. Ortiz also matches up well against a slugger. He proved this against Maidana, although he eventually was worn down by the Argentinian's onslaught.
Berto has a lot of speed and decent power but he lacks movement and is very hittable. He has trouble adapting and has an untested and suspect chin. I expect Ortiz to expose Berto's two-dimensionality and eventiually catch him with some big shots. The ending will all depend on whether or not we see the "vicious" side of Victor. He will get touched by Berto and depending on how he reacts will determine the rest of the fight. Has he gotten over Maidana or does it still haunt him?
I expect the fight to be a feeling out process for a couple of rounds before Berto starts getting aggressisive. If Ortiz is able to withstand Berto's assault, I believe Victor will start gaining confidence in the middle rounds and begin to land combinations. Towards the end of the fight I see Berto tiring and getting sloppy. This will be Ortiz's chance to score a late KO or outwork the Haitian to a close decision victory.
The way to bet this fight is 1 Unit on Ortiz to Win at +300. There is too much risk on the prop bets as I can see a knockout being as likely as a decision. Good Luck!
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