June 13, 2009
OUTCOME: Cotto by Split Decision
ANDY'S PICK: Clottey by Decision
THE BET:
2.0 Units on Clottey to win at +275
0.5 Units on Clottey by Decision at +900
THE PAYOUT:
-2.5 Units
I'm not sure why Cotto took this dangerous fight but I take my hat off to his bravery. That being said I believe he is in for quite a rough evening.
The pre-Margarito Cotto probably would have handled Clottey in a lopsided decision but this Cotto is shop-worn. That old confidence has been shaken badly, and thats not a good sign for someone who is getting in the ring with one of the toughest, most underrated fighters in the division. The biggest problem I see for Cotto here is that he probably cant hurt the rugged African. In past fights when he was unable to assert his power he has run into trouble. In this fight he will learn early on that Clottey can take his best shot. Once this dawns on him he will resort to movement. This worked against Mosley (by the slimmest of margins) but will it work against a hungry Clottey? It should be very interesting to watch but I believe that the foot race will favor Clottey. I expect the African to get outworked early but come on strong late and even possibly score a KO against the Puerto Rican superstar. The most likely scenario seems to be a close decision win for Clottey.
The way to bet this fight is 2.0 units on Clottey to win at +275 and 0.5 units on a Decision win at +900. Despite the long odds on a decision I think the possibility of a KO is too high to lay all the money there. Good luck!!
Quick side note: I will continue to refer to 85 as "Chad Johnson" until he actually starts doing well on the football field. Remember the scene in "Coming to America" where the guys in thasdfe barber shop are debating what to call Muhammed Ali/Cassius Clay? Well, in this case, I am siding with Clarance:
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