April 11, 2009
OUTCOME: Williams by Decision
ANDY'S PICK: Williams by Decision
THE PAYOUT:
5.0 Units
Well you know Paul Williams is being dodged when he has to fight Winky Wright. That being said I really don't think Winky stands a chance in this fight. As much as I love the guy, almost two years of inactivity, a ten-inch reach disadvantage and a terrible style matchup all lead me to believe that Winky will walk away with a UD loss.
While Winky is technically the "bigger" man, his natural weight advantage will be meaningless against the height and reach of Paul Williams. While it will most likely allow him to survive twelve rounds, it will only serve to make him the slower man. The way I see this fight going is simple. Winky's style will work against him from rounds one through twelve. Williams is an output fighter. He never stops throwing punches. Winky likes to ball up into a defensive shell while his opponent attacks and then take his turn peppering them with combinations. Against Williams this will backfire. There won't be any window for Winky to have the clear for an attack. He will constantly be under a barrage of 82 inch long shots and will have no room to breathe. In the end he will have lost nearly every round and look ripe for retirement.
The way to bet this fight is 7 units on Williams by Decision at -140. Winky hasn't scored a knockout in seven years and with William's sturdy beard that sure isn't going to change tonight. While there is the very slim chance that Winky can somehow figure out Williams and use his veteran skills to outsmart him, this outcome is not even worth a hedge. If anything there is a better chance the ref will put Winky out of his misery in the late rounds but based on Winky's career stats, that is equally dubious. Good luck!
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