Manny Pacquiao vs. Ricky Hatton

May 2, 2009

OUTCOME: Pacquiao by KO

ANDY'S PICK: Hatton by TKO

THE BET:
3 Units on Hatton to win at +215

THE PAYOUT:
-3.0 Units

To be perfectly honest I thought at first this fight was a mismatch, but in favor of Pacquiao not Hatton. After much reflection I've realized that I, like so many other journalists and odds makers was brainwashed by the Pac Man's destruction of Oscar De La Hoya. I think we all can agree in hindsight that the Golden boy was not all too golden that night. Aside from being totally drained from making weight, he was clearly many years past his prime. So if not the De La Hoya fight, then what is the defining performance of Pacquiao's career?  Beating a washed up Morales? Pummeling an even more washed up Barrera? Perhaps  his two losses (ahem...i means wins) against a 125lb Juan Manuel Marquez? You see when you really look at the record, Manny hasn't accomplished anything all too grand. Now he is truly stepping up to face a real, prime junior welterweight for the first time in his career. But this isn't some 2nd tier 140 pounder. Rather Pacquiao will be fighting the most ferocious 140 pounder in the game tomorrow night. If the Pac Man was hurt by 125 pound Marquez, what will happen when he tastes Hatton's best left hook? Let's remember, Hatton has never had trouble at 140 and that includes Kostya Tszyu. The only times he was even tested was by Collazo and Mayweather, both at 147. In fact, if it weren't for the Mayweather KO, we probably all would be thinking Hatton should be the favorite in this match.

This is the way I see the fight playing out. Hatton will start very aggressively in an attempt to impose his will and bully the smaller man. This tactic worked against Mayweather and I have no doubt it will work against Pacquiao. The middle rounds will decide the outcome of the fight. I expect that Hatton will lose some of these rounds based purely on better connect percentages from Pacquiao. However, Hatton's punches will be hurting Manny more and by the late rounds, while he may actually be leading on the score cards, Pacquiao will be fading. I expect sometime near the end of the fight, a final Hatton barrage will leave Pacquiao helpless against the ropes and the ref will stop the action.

The way to bet this fight is 3 units on Hatton to win at +215. While a knockout prop could be an interesting side bet, there is not enough value there at +300. Good luck!

Comments

[reynante bitas]

you know Andy , the time of the prophets are long gone. this is boxing . dont be a prophet. Many people, they say in boxing, that they are expert, what happen to them in Manny Pacquiao's fights. they are a false prophet everytime manny fights.

[paul]

what are you saying now andy? who is the best guy? thisis clearly a mismatch!