February 07, 2009
OUTCOME: Darchinyan by TKO
ANDY'S PICK: Arce by TKO THE BET:
1.5 Units on Arce by KO at +450
THE PAYOUT:
-1.5 Units
I love this recession. Another phenomenal fight fans' feast between two brawling warriors and its NOT on PPV!
One thing I can almost guarantee is that only one man will be left standing at the end of this bout, and based on both fighters' chins it will not be an easy route to the canvas for either. In his last fight, Darchinyan won an impressive stoppage over Christian Mijares, who less than two years ago won an easy unanimous decision over Jorge Arce. Many will point to this common opponent and assume that Darchinyan is going to steamroll Arce. However styles make fights and I believe the high punch volume and relentless brawling style of Arce will give the Armenian as much as he can handle. While Darchinyan never had to worry about Mijares' power, against Arce he will not have the luxury of being able to move forward with impunity.
I expect the early rounds to be fought furiously as both men try to gain each other's respect. The middle rounds could turn more tactical as Darchinyan uses a bit more caution against the rugged Mexican. Aside from a couple misteps in his teens, Arce has never been badly hurt in a fight and if he can make it into the later rounds he will gain the upper hand. I expect Arce to wear Darchinyan down in these later rounds and eventually start bullying the bully. At this point it is only a matter of time before Darchinyan cannot continue. Remember, Nonito Donaire, who is not known as a heavy puncher, knocked Vic out cold. Arce punches harder and more often. If he can get to Darchinyan's chin as often I suspect he will, this could turn out to be the second KO loss for the Armenian Raging Bull.
The way to bet this fight is 1.5 units on Arce by stoppage at +450. While this is a risky bet, I feel confident that Arce's chin will hold up and if it does, Darchinyan will wither under the pressure. Good luck!!
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