January 24, 2009
OUTCOME: Mosley by TKO
ANDY'S PICK: Mosley by Decision THE BET:
2 Units on Mosley by Dec. at +550
2 Units on Margarito by Decision at +110 (HEDGE)
THE PAYOUT:
-4.0 Units
Well you know you're in a recession when a fight like this is on free TV.
Coming off his devastating win over Miguel Cotto, the Tijuana Tornado is not wasting anytime in taking on the next best fighter in the division. It seems that the Margarito people feel that by fighting Shane Mosley they can have a marquee name and an easy win. However, despite his 37 years, Mosley is still as dangerous as ever and contrary to what the judges saw, I had him beating Cotto by two points. Interestingly, had Cotto not succumbed to the Margarito barrage in the 11th round, he most likely would have won that fight by a similar margin. Thats why this fight is so intriguing.
Let's first look at the vital statistics.
Despite being two inches taller than Mosley, Margarito has a one inch reach disadvantage over the freakishly long 74" that Sugar Shane brings to the table. What's important to note here is that Cotto's reach is 67", a full seven inches shorter than Mosley's. This was one of the main reasons why Miguel was unable to keep Margarito at bay long enough to survive twelve rounds. In the pounds department, both men are fighting at their ideal weight although the advantage here goes to Mosley, who at welterweight is nearly unstoppable.
Here's how I expect the fight to play out:
Mosley will look great in the early rounds, keeping Margarito at distance with his long jab and pot shotting him when he comes in close. If Mosley is smart, which I believe is, he will avoid excessive in-fighting as this is where Margarito feasts. However Mosley is no chump when it comes to mixing it up on the inside and I expect him to give just as good as he takes in these exchanges. As they enter the middle rounds I expect the tide to shift slightly in Margarito's favor as the 37 year old legs of Mosley cannot quite keep pace with the relentless onslaught of the Mexican. However, despite his years, Mosley has shown tremendous stamina in recent fights, and I don't expect him to run out of gas entirely. Regardless, Mosley will start taking some punishment in these rounds and will have to settle for a more defensive stance to avoid getting roughed up excessively. While the middle rounds will be mixed, slightly favoring Margarito, I expect the true warrior in Mosley to come out in the later frames. While Cotto began to run away at this point in his fight with the Mexican, I expect Mosley, with his far superior chin, to stand and trade with Margarito. This will make for some crowd pleasing moments and most likely some additional points on the cards for Sugar Shane. In the end I expect both of these iron-chinned men to still be standing with Mosley edging the Mexican by the slimmest of margins.
The formula is simple: Mosley has a longer reach and a better chin than Cotto. Had Cotto had either of these attributes he most likely would have won a close decision in his fight with Margarito.
The way to bet this fight is 2 units on Mosley by Decision at +550 with a hedge of 2 units on a Margarito decision at +110. Neither of these men have ever been knocked out and I don't expect that to change tonight. Good luck!!
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