Manny Pacquiao vs. Oscar De La Hoya

December 06, 2008

OUTCOME: Pacquiao by TKO (WOW!)

ANDY'S PICK: De La Hoya by 10th round KO

THE BET:
3 Units on De La Hoya by KO at +150
1 Unit on Pacquiao by Decision at +300 (hedge)

THE PAYOUT:
-4.5 Units

Ok, so for all those fans out there (myself included) who have had doubts about Oscar's chances against Pac-Man, here is the math that should put those questions to rest:

De La Hoya walks around at 165. Manny walks around at 135.
De La Hoya has a four inch height advantage and a six inch reach advantage.
The last time Oscar fought at 147 was his 2001 domination of Arturo Gatti.  That same year Pacquiao was fighting at the super bantam weight of 121.
Two years earlier in 1999, Pacquiao was knocked out in the 3rd round by 112-pound, household name, Medgoen Singsurat.
Two years ago Oscar executed a six round destruction of 154-pound Ricardo Mayorga, who has as good a chin as anyone within three weight classes.

I could go on forever but I think you get the point. If Mayweather barely escaped with a decision against Oscar then how can the far less defensive-minded Pacquiao survive? He can't.

Don't get me wrong. I love Pacquiao and truly believe he is the best pound for pound fighter in the world today. I just don't believe in miracles.

Here's how I expect the fight to play out:

The first round will be very telling and I suspect both fighters will come out blasting. It will end up being Pacquiao's round on pure work rate and speed. However as the early rounds wear on I expect Oscar to begin imposing his will on the smaller man.  Pacquiao's defense is his weakest link and he will be punished in the center of the ring and against the ropes.  While I expect him to outland Oscar in these rounds, the more telling blows will be received on Pac-Man's chin and body. The middle rounds will begin to foretell Manny's demise as Oscar's jab and body work will have weakened him considerably by this point.  The more fatigued and bruised that Pacquiao gets, the more suceptible he will be to one-two combos and the feared De La Hoya left hook. I expect that the Pac-Man will go down valiantly in the late rounds from a De La Hoya barrage against the ropes.

The way to bet this fight is 3 units on De La Hoya by KO at +150 and 1 unit on Pacquiao by decision at +300. While I expect Oscar to close the show, if somehow Pacquiao survives the 12 rounds I can foresee a close decision perhaps tipping in his favor. THE HEDGE HERE IS A MUST! Remember, despite what Freddie Roach says, it is impossible for Pacquiao to knockout the iron-chinned De La Hoya, so don't even think about that option. Good Luck!

Comments

[FILIPINO]

hahahahahahaaha

DON'T MESS WITH THE MANNY.

[morgan_s]

i want to hear from the writer of this article. Come on say the words "I was wrong, dead wrong". At least be man enough to admit it.

[Mythbuster]

Dickhead, non of your predictions for this fight came true. You ate your words and probably lost a lot of money on this fight. You have NO CREDIBILITY like all the rest of stupid analyst who predicted De La Hoya will win.

[leon2003]

My friend, no offense, but you got most of your analysis wrong. I wonder how many people lost money because of your poor judgement.