November 22, 2008
OUTCOME: Hatton by 11th Rd. TKO
ANDY'S PICK: Malignaggi by Split Decision
THE PAYOUT:
-1 Units
A year ago I doubt that Paulie Malignaggi would have dreamed that he'd be meeting Ricky Hatton tonight in Las Vegas, but after Mayweather cut the Hitman down like an old English pine, Mr. Hatton doesn't have much choice but take a fight such as this one. The problem from a business perspective is that he has chosen a local New York favorite but a national non-entity. Even worse is that he is facing a carbon copy of Luis Collazo, except with a better jab. Hatton doesn't fare well against crafty defensive minded boxers and, with a 5" inch reach advantage, Malignaggi poses a very real threat. Furthermore, after his courageous battle with Miguel Cotto I don't think Malignaggi will be at significant risk of getting knocked out against the only slightly above-average power of Hatton.
I see this fight playing out as follows. Hatton will try to impose his will early with swarming assaults. If Malignaggi is able to survive this tactic for the first two rounds I see him taking control of the middle frames with his jab and stick and move boxing skills. The late rounds will prove toughest for Malignaggi as Hatton's relentless attack will have created fatigue in the New Yorker's legs. Hatton may win the last few rounds on sheer will, but if Malignaggi has put enough rounds in the tank by then he should come away with a close decision.
The bet here is 1 unit on Malignaggi by decision at +250. While this is a risky bet, I believe you are getting an approximate 75% premium to the actual odds. Good luck!!
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