October 18, 2008
OUTCOME: Hopkins by Decision
ANDY'S PICK: Hopkins by Decision
THE PAYOUT:
5.7 Units
Let me make this clear. I don't think Hopkins will definitely win this fight but at +570 I think you're getting a 200% value.
Pavlik is 26 and Hopkins is 43. That right there would ordinarily be enough for this fight to not even make it past the sanctioning bodies. But Hopkins is no ordinary 43 year old. Even in his last fight he lost a very controversial decision to arguably the best pound for pound fighter in the world in Joe Calzaghe. I don't believe age will play as big a role in this bout as people think. While Hopkins did tire in the back half of the Calzaghe fight, he was never in any danger and didn't take a clean shot the whole night. That ability to avoid getting hit squarely will be the key to victory for Hopkins. Despite Pavlik's fearsome power and work rate I find it almost impossible to believe that he can stop Hopkins. As a matter of fact I think there is almost no chance whatsoever. If Jermain Taylor could go the distance with Pavlik then Hopkins will have no trouble.
How will Hopkins win this fight? Pure, unadulterated, jail-house craftiness. Pavlik has never been in the ring with a veteran master on the level of Hopkins. The shots he is used to landing will be slipped or blocked and he will be hit by punches he's never been hit by. He will eventually get frustrated, get careless and take some very big shots to the head. With his strong chin I don't believe Hopkins will put him down but after 12 rounds Pavlik will be the worse for wear.
Take Hopkins by decision at +570 in a swan song for the ages. Good luck!!!
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