August 30, 2008
OUTCOME: Valuev by Split Decision
ANDY'S PICK: Ruiz by Decision
THE PAYOUT:
0 Units
There are two things that baffle me in regards to this fight. First, why is John Ruiz still boxing, and for that matter why is he even allowed to bore fight fans to death in a sanctioned for-profit event? My second question is why on Earth is there actually an audience big enough to validate this horrid excuse for a heavyweight title fight? Well I guess the answer to both questions is that heavyweight boxing is for all intents and purposes as extinct as Triceratops. However, I do believe there to be a fine opportunity to make good money on this mess of a boxing match.
Since their first meeting almost three years ago, both fighters have had close decision losses against Ruslan Chagaev and both have earned easy victories over Jameel McCline. However, Valuev has been more active and was impressive in his lopsided decision win over Serguei Lyakhovich in February. Since they are both the same age and they pretty much fought to a draw in their first meeting the only thing separating the two is activity. I for one do not believe this will have any bearing on the fight so one must ask his or herself, why is John Ruiz such a big underdog? The answer is simple. Aside from the clear hometown judging advantage, Valuev is nearly a foot taller and no matter what happened in the first fight people just assume that the giant will prevail in the rematch. As a result, we more savvy handicappers realize that this +350 line is a huge gift. Let's face it, Ruiz probably won the first fight and neither fighter is any different now, three years later. Its a pick'em fight and I expect Ruiz to have learned from his past mistakes and box the goliath more effectively, winning in a potentially unanimous decision. As for the Quiet Man's chances of knocking out the Russian, they are nil.
The way to bet this fight is simple. Two units on Ruiz by DECISION at +350. While you are only getting another +75 premium on the decision prop compared to the straight bet, I still think its worth it since Valuev has a better chance of becoming a thoroughbred jockey than going down against the soft punching Puerto Rican. GOOD LUCK!
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