Vladimir Klitschko vs. Tony Thompson

 
July 12, 2008

OUTCOME: Klitschko by KO

ANDY'S PICK: Thompson by KO

THE BET:
2 Units on Thompson to Win at +450

THE PAYOUT:
0 Units

Let me start off by saying that while I think Klitschko has a better chance of beating Tony Thompson than losing, a 7 to 1 favorite he most definitely is not.  For whatever reason, the odds makers have dismissed Thompson's chances of even being competitive in Saturday's bout.  I would make Thompson about a +150 so at +450 you're getting a 200% value in this writer's humble opinion. Thompson's age (36) and anonymity account for a good part of this underestimation, but it must be realized that the Maryland native started boxing in his late 20's and has never really been seen by a national audience.  While the competition he has faced pales in comparison to Klitschko's resume, he has outclassed worthy opponents in Luan Krasnqi, Timor Ibragimov and Dominick Guinn.

Thompson is a tall, skilled boxer with respectable power (60% knockout ratio), a solid chin and a reach that is actually one half inch greater than Klitschko's.  Unlike Vladimir's recent bouts  against smaller opponents with inferior jabs, in Thompson he will be facing a big southpaw who will not simply be kept at bay by the fearsome Ukranian stick. Just like Klitschko crumbled against the 6'5" southpaw, Corey Sanders, I suspect he might be in for a similar evening against Thompson. Once Vladimir realizes his jab will not keep Thompson off of him, he will have to do something that makes him very uncomfortable. He will have to fight. Thompson will have the advantage here and I think there is a chance he will break Klitschko's will. Tony's admirable body work could be the finishing touch in a major upset.  While I certainly don't expect this to be an easy night for Thompson, if he can pressure Klitschko, force him into a brawl and avoid that monster right hand I wouldn't be surprised to see the champ on the seat of his pants by the late rounds.

Call me crazy but aside from his devastation of Lamon Brewster in their rematch I haven't been remotely impressed with Klitschko since his stoppage of Jameel McCline six years ago. In Thompson he is facing a tough and hungry contender who has come out of nowhere to try his hand at dethroning the giant.  I feel like I've seen this movie before. The bet to make here is Thompson to win at+450. Good luck!

Comments

[fredo]

Gosh, worst pick ever. Thompson?! How could you think this up