Miguel Cotto vs. Antonio Margarito

July 26, 2008

OUTCOME: Margarito by KO

ANDY'S PICK: Margarito by KO

THE BET:
3.0 Units on Margarito by KO at +320

THE PAYOUT:
9.6 Units

Aside from being potential candidate for fight of the decade, tonight's matchup between these two superstars is the first Pay Per View boxing event worth the price of admission since the turn of the century. Although I expect this fight to be a war for the ages I can't rule out the possibility that it could be over for Cotto in the first three rounds.

As far as I'm concerned, Cotto has never had a fight that has convinced me of his greatness. He was nearly knocked out by two mediocre fighters in Corley and Torres and in his most impressive victory he spent the last few rounds running away from the 36 year old Shane Mosley. Why was he running? Because if he stood and traded with Sugar he would have been flattened.  It is precisely this weakness that I believe Margarito will exploit. Margarito will be the tallest fighter Cotto has ever faced and probably the busiest. But more than just activity, Margarito offers true Mexican grit. His chin is seemingly indestructible and he doesn't doesn't stop pressuring his opponents until they're on their backs.
 Cotto's only chance in this fight is to box and move and punish Margarito's body. If he can do both of these things succesfully he will most likely win a decision. However he may have been able to do that against Mosley but against a prime and hungry Margarito, no way. He will not be able to hide from the rugged Mexican and he will be forced to fight. He will be outworked and outslugged. He will not survive past the 10th.

The way to bet this fight is 3 units on Margarito by KO at +320 with a 2.3 unit hedge on Cotto by decision at +130. Cotto can't knockout Margarito and Margarito can't win a boxing match against Cotto. At +5200 I would even place a small bet on Margarito to take him out in the first round. Yes, I think he's that hungry. Good luck!

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