Carlos Quintana vs. Paul Williams II

June 7, 2008

OUTCOME: Williams by KO

ANDY'S PICK: Quintana by Decision

THE BET:
4 Units on Quintana by Decision at +200

THE PAYOUT:
0 Units

Well I, like many others, was dead wrong when picking Quintana to be rolled over by, the then heir apparent, Paul Williams in their first fight.  But after having seen that match I can say with confidence that Quintana is the guy who has Williams' number.  He exposed Williams as a relatively one dimensional fighter, who while very busy, throws wide punches and has terrible defense.  Like most rematches, the victor in the first is the victor in the second and I don't think this rematch will be any different.  Quintana is the faster, smarter boxer and I expect his straighter more accurate punches to find their target more often than Williams' looping shots.  In addition, Williams' tendency to smother his own punches by fighting "short" will again be a major factor in diluting his offense.

I don't see this fight ending inside the distance. Despite his size, Williams is not a power puncher and Quintana took his cleanest shots very well in their last fight.  On the flip side, Williams has a formidable beard and I do not expect the relatively light punching Quintana to hurt him badly.  It is important to note that Williams had serious trouble making weight for this fight so its not inconceivable that in his potential weakened state he may be vulnerable to a stoppage.  But in the end I expect this fight to play out very similarly to the first fight although perhaps by a slightly wider margin for Quintana.

The way to bet this fight is simple.  4 units on a Quintana Decision at +200.  While the straight odds of +130 are decent you get much more bang for your buck with the decision prop. Good Luck!