April 12, 2008
OUTCOME: Cotto by TKO
ANDY'S PICK: Cotto by Decision THE BET: THE PAYOUT:
3 Units on Cotto by Decision at +240
-3 Units
Judging from the +800 odds on Contender star Alfonso Gomez, it is apparent that the boxing world has given Miguel Cotto unprecedented respect. Gomez is a very durable and skilled boxer who ended Arturo Gatti's career and seems to be getting better with every fight. Since coming up on the short side of a decision to Peter Manfredo Jr. in the Contender finale in 2004, Gomez has not suffered a loss and has won decisions against rugged veterans Jesse Brinkley and Ben Tackie. Cotto's resume of course speaks for itself. However, he has shown some vulnerability as of late in a highly controversial decision win against an aging Shane Mosley and an 11 round war with Zab Judah. Also we cannot forget the close calls he had in 2005 with DeMarcus Corley and Ricardo Torres. While Gomez has logged very few knockouts in his career you can't argue with what he did to the ultra-tough Gatti. I'm not saying that he has a good shot at scoring a knockout, but I don't believe that Cotto will be able to walk through Gomez and get an early stoppage as most probably expect. I think Gomez will not only survive the Cotto onslaught but may actually shock fans with how well he performs against the Puerto Rican superstar. Remember, Gomez is the naturally bigger man and has fought and won at as high as 160. Cotto has not enjoyed spectacular knockout success since he moved up to 147 and Gomez should pack some extra power down at this weight (see Arturo Gatti above).
I expect the early rounds to favor Gomez slightly as he out boxes Cotto, who is a notorious slow starter. As Cotto warms up he should start taking charge and bullying Gomez around the ring. However, I believe that Gomez is an excellent defensive fighter and has a beard sturdy enough to weather the Cotto storm. Remember, while never having faced the kind of punching power he will tonight, Gomez has never been noticeably hurt in his entire professional career. While he will be methodically broken down over the late rounds, I expect him to put on a performance that earns him enormous respect in the boxing community. The win will be unanimous for Cotto but the scores will be surprisingly close.
The way to bet this fight is by placing 3 units on a Cotto Decision at +240. While a safer bet would be the Over, I don't believe the +110 odds here adequately compensate the risk. At +800 it may be worth placing a lottery ticket bet on Gomez to Win but nothing more than half a unit. Good luck!
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