Bernard Hopkins vs. Joe Calzaghe

April 19, 2008

OUTCOME: Calzaghe by (robbery) Split Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Hopkins by Split Decision 

THE BET:
3 Units on Hopkins by Decision at +320 

THE PAYOUT:
-3 Units

Six years ago, before Hopkins fought Trinidad, my thinking was that Hopkins was a little too old and Trinidad was a little too good.  If back then I knew that today in 2008 I would be picking a 43 year old Hopkins to beat Joe Calzaghe at light heavyweight I would have had a good belly laugh.  But this is no laughing matter.  Bernard Hopkins simply knows how to beat great fighters.  He made huge adjustments to destroy Trinidad and tonight I believe he will do the same to edge out Calazghe by the narrowest of margins.  Calzaghe had a great amount of difficulty with the journeyman Sakio Bika as a result of Bika's awkward and physical style. But Hopkins is about 10x as good as Bika and much smarter.  Hopkins has eaten southpaws for breakfast over his career as illustrated by a 12-0 record and as far as age, just ignore it.  Hopkins is not your average human specimen.  He has the body of 25 year old and the stamina of a teenager.  Calzaghe is no spring chicken either, although at 35 he too seems to be getting better with age. Everyone was blown away by Calzaghe's performances against Kessler and Lacy and yes they were impressive but both of those fighters don't shine candle to Hopkins.  Kessler is a standard straight up European fight (albeit a very good one) and Lacy is a one  dimensional puncher who never deserved the hype he received prior to his meeting with Calzaghe.  The bottom line is Joe's resume pales in comparison to Bernard's.  The scales tip heavily when you weight De La Hoya, Trindad, Wright, Tarver, Johnson, Taylor and Jones against Kessler and Lacy. Hopkins I believe has trained harder for this fight than any other in his career.  He has prepared for war and to assist him he has assembled a veritable army of trainers, conditioners and consultants.  As he said over and over again, "I ain't never gonna let a white bot beat me" and I for one take his word.

This is how I see it unfolding. Hopkins knows that he has to keep Joe's work rate down to win this fight.  I expect him to successfully employ the jab and smother Calzaghe's attacks with his uncanny ability to hug his opponents.  Most importantly though I predict he will work Calzaghe's body in an unrelenting fashion, taking the steam out of the Welsh freight train in the later rounds.  The secret weapon though will be Hopkin's legendary style of rough housing.  Expect all five years he spent in the Philly pen to be poured onto the Welshman with impunity.  He's a much stronger fighter at light heavyweight and I expect him to turn this bout into a physical brawl the likes of Calzaghe has never seen.   On the inside he will dominate and make Calzaghe expend loads of wasted energy.  On the outside he will be at a slight disadvantage as Calzaghe's movement and punch count will be a bit too much for the elder statesman.   We can definitely rule out the Calzaghe knockout since Hopkins has been in with far bigger punchers and never ever been fazed.  There is a slight possibility that Hopkins may get to the questionable chin of Calzaghe but I think the Welshman is tough enough to weather Hopkin's power.  However, don't be surprised if Joe ends up on the seat of his pants at some point in the fight.

The bet here is clearly Hopkins by DECISION at +320.  More conservative betters may want to just bet Bernard to WIN at +200 but I don't view this to be as good of a value play.  I see this as a pick'em fight and getting better than 3 to 1 odds is a gift.  Also don't forget Hopkin's home field judging advantage. GOOD LUCK!

Comments

[Fredo]

Poop Andy, Bernard was not robbed, he lost that fight.