March 8, 2008
OUTCOME: Peter by Knockout
ANDY'S PICK: Maskaev by Decision THE BET:
2 Units on Maskaev by Decision at +800
4 Units on Peter by KO at -200 (required hedge)
THE PAYOUT:
0 Units
I'm sure that many people will think I'm crazy when they see this prediction but at +800 I believe that the cagey and much improved Maskaev is being severely short-changed. Maskaev has not lost a fight in six years and has proven that he is a skilled boxer. Peter on the other hand struggled badly against perennial has-been Jameel McCline and barely escaped with two decision wins over former MIDDLEWEIGHT James Toney (aka Pillsbury Dough Boy). As a matter of fact his most impressive fight in the past five years has been his decision loss to Vladimir Klitschko. Even at 39 years of age I believe Maskaev is one of the most dangerous men in the division and despite the long layoff I think he will shine tonight.
I expect the fight to start with Peter throwing bombs galore, trying to take Maskaev's head off in the early going. Due to his power and Maskaev's suspect chin Peter might very well be successful with this tactic. But if Maskaev is able to weather the strom through the first three rounds, I think Peter is in trouble. Keeping in mind Peter's tendency to tire in the late rounds I suspect Maskaev will start dominating the Nigerian in a boxing match and take the decision.
As I said earlier, the Peter knockout is a very real possibility so you should lay 4 units on that outcome at -200, insuring your 2 unit bet on Maskaev by decision. Again, let me repeat, you will not see a line so grossly miscalculated for quite some time.
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