March 15, 2008
OUTCOME: Pacquiao by (bullsh*t) Split Decision
ANDY'S PICK: Marquez by Decision THE BET: THE PAYOUT:
4 Units on Marquez to Win at +175
0.25 Units on a Draw at +1500 (required hedge)
-4.25 Units
Well we got one Marquez brother for free and now we're gonna have to pay for the second. Tomorrow night's pay-per-view extravaganza features the long awaited rematch between two of boxing's best. In the first fight Marquez would have arguably cruised to a unanimous decision had it not been for him tasting the canvas three times in the first round. Miraculously he dominated the next eleven rounds earning a controversial draw. This writer saw Marquez winning the fight by two points. In the past four years both fighters have faced a handful of legends (albeit past their prime) and lost once. Pacquiao dropped a razer thin decision to Erik Morales and Marquez lost a close contest to Chris John. Based on the pedigree of those two, the edge goes clearly to Marquez. John is perhaps top three pound for pound in the world and Morales was already beginning to slip when he faced Pacquiao. As far as their most impressive victories, both earned those in their most recent fights with Pacquiao's one sided win over Marco Antonio Barrera and Marquez's destruction of Rocky Juarez. In the age department the edge clearly goes to the 29 year old Pacquiao who has a solid five years on the 34 year-old Marquez. However, based upon Marquez's most recent performances and his disciplined training regiment I don't believe age will be a deciding factor. In many ways actually this fight is a mirror image of the fight his brother waged two weeks ago: The older and wiser boxer versus the younger, tougher puncher. We all saw what happened in the first fight and I don't expect this one to be much different. It is going to be a very close, hard fought battle that I believe will end with the sharper, straighter punches of Marquez carrying the day. I mean come on, what are the chances of both brothers losing in three weeks?
This is a pick'em fight and as with all pick'em fights you gotta put your money on the betting underdog. At +175 Marquez offers a very good value and based on their first fight I see him as a slight favorite. Since this contest could easily end in a virtual tie I would recommend insuring your bet with 0.25 units on a Draw at +1500. Good luck!
Andy, my advice to you, if you want to remain a boxing analyst, never go or bet against Manny Pacquiao. He will prove you wrong every time like these so called expert (Atlas, Iole et al). Pacquiao will always make your predictions amateurish. It's time for you to Believe in Manny. Manny Knows!
Posted by: dave pogi | April 21, 2011 at 06:27 AM
To say that Marquez is a winner, is somewhat a sour grapes. If you are a true boxing analist, you will always conform to the decision of the three judges, naturally, the winner is Manny Pacquiao. Marquez is a true boxer, but he is fighting against a magnificent boxer who could knock him out at anytime in the ring. It was an angel's help that Marquez was able to get up, and He should be happy for that. His history of having down three times by Manny was enough ground that his boxing ability is less ordinary compare to manny. If you could box without the gems of a knockdown, then, your ability is only good for a drew, but if your opponent can box and knock you down, then, you have to accept that you are a loser. That is what happen to Marquez.
Posted by: Jude Canaya | March 30, 2008 at 12:29 PM