Rafael Marquez vs. Israel Vasquez III

March 1, 2008

OUTCOME: Vasquez by Split Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Marquez by Decision 

THE BET:
4 Units on Marquez to Win +150
2 Units on Marquez by Decision at +380

THE PAYOUT:
-6 Units

So what does it say about the current state of boxing's fan base when Trinidad vs. Jones is pay-per-view but this fight isn't?  If we paid $50 to see Jones I would say that on a relative basis this fight should cost around $10,000.  Anyhow I've said my piece. 

As with most trilogies the two big questions regarding this rubber-match are who is the worse for wear and who has learned the most.  With a severely broken nose and mangled left eye, it seems to me that Vasquez has taken the lion's share of the physical damage so far.  Marquez I believe has learned three very valuable lessons: jab, jab, jab.  The only times Vasquez has been effective in the their previous two meetings was when he got close.  You can be sure that this time around Marquez will be hyper-vigilant about using his double and triple jab to keep Vasquez at bay.  At the end of Marquez's jab Vasquez will be in for a very frustrating and painful evening.  Despite Marquez's loss let's not forget who the better boxer is here.  I personally think Vasquez has become over-hyped since the second fight and people have forgotten just how good Marquez really is.  I expect him to remind us this time, and by employing a jab-heavy offense will allow Vasquez to survive the full twelve rounds in a unanimous decision loss.

The bet here is to take advantage of the +380 line on Marquez By Decision but also play it safe with a slightly larger bet on Marquez to win at +150.  Its impossible to rule out the knockout, and I think its the odds on bet that someone will probably taste the canvas before this one is over.  Also despite substantial plastic surgery since the second fight it is very conceivable that Vasquez's face will open up and result in an early stoppage.  Ruling cuts out I think Vasquez will be tough enough to withstand even a one-sided beating at the hands of Marquez.  Either way we're in for a free night of boxing at its best.

Comments

[Billyg]

I agree the Marquez is the better fighter, he is a beautiful fighter with just enough holes in his defense to make his fights very exciting. But I don't think he is going to be able to stick to a plan of jabbing all night; the first time there is a fierce exchange he is going to fall back on his warrior ways. I think Vasquez HAD to quit the first one because of his breathing problem, not because he was broken down or knocked out, while the second one was a legit TKO of Marquez. I think Vasquez is stronger and hungrier and willing to do more to win, and I think he will win tonight.