February 16, 2008
OUTCOME: Pavlik by Decision
ANDY'S PICK: Pavlik by Decision THE BET:
4 Units on Pavlik by Decision at +500
5 Units on Pavlik by KO at -120
THE PAYOUT:
15 Units
No matter what the outcome of this highly anticipated rematch, fans will be in for a real treat which will most likely be worth every penny of those pay-per-view dollars. The fighter from Youngstown is one of the most exciting and entertaining fighters to come around since Mike Tyson, and Jermain Taylor is hungry as a cow on the Atkins diet. But no matter how badly Taylor wants this one it feels like he has already lost. He was very lucky to hurt Pavlik at all in the fight. If you remember, Pavlik, in a brazen act of stupidity offered his chin to Taylor who responded by teeing off on it like Tiger Woods hitting a softball. Had it not been for that mishap Pavlik would have dominated Taylor and possibly taken him out in less than five rounds. At 166 Pavlik has an even better chance this time around. He will be strong and brimming with confidence. As soon as Taylor tastes his power (which will be in the first minute of the fight) he will suddenly remember why he had such a bad night back in September.
Anyhow the bet to make here is Pavlik by knockout but based on the great value of +500 on the decision I would put my money on Pavlik by decision with a small insurance bet on a Pavlik knockout. I think its very possible that Taylor may successfully navigate the Pavlik minefield for twelve rounds and save face with a lopsided decision loss. Don't forget, until the knockout in the first fight, Pavlik was winning the lion's share of the rounds so I don't even think Taylor can pull of the decision win here.
Bottom line is when Pavlik chops Taylor down this time, he will become the guy to beat at middleweight, super-middleweight and perhaps even light-heavyweight. Yup, he's that good.
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