Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Ricky Hatton

December 08, 2007

OUTCOME: Mayweather by KO

ANDY'S PICK: Mayweather by Decision

THE BET:
6.5 units on Mayweather to win by Decision at -130
1.0 unit on Mayweather by Split Decision at +850

THE PAYOUT:
-7.5 

Well the big night is nearing and the two stars of the show have postured enough for not only this fight, but also the rematch and the third installment as well.  On Saturday they will actually have to hit each other and despite popular belief that Mayweather is an assembly line of boring fights, I believe we are all in for a memorable evening.

I'd like to start by dispelling the myth that Mayweather wont be able to take Hatton's relentless assault and will eventually succumb to the pressure in a crumpled ball on the canvas.  Hatton has about as good a chance of knocking out Mayweather as the author of this post. 

#1.) Hatton is NOT a knockout puncher. 
Then of course you ask, "What about Jose Luis Castillo?"  The Castillo that fought Hatton that night was not only washed up and out of shape, but almost seemed relieved when he was counted out by the ref.  He did not want to fight.  He just wanted a paycheck.  When Castillo fought Mayweather five years ago, Jose he was in his prime, arguably in the top three pound for pound fighters in the world and Floyd still took back to back unanimous decisions from him.  As for Kostya Tsyzu, well he just didn't feel like being embarrassed in the last round of his career.  He knew he had lost a close fight, was out of gas and wanted to leave the sport in good health.  Bottom line is this; if Hatton couldn't hurt Urango, Collazo, Vilches and a forty year-old Vince Phillips then how the hell is he going to topple perhaps the greatest defensive fighter of our era?

#2.) Hatton is the smaller man in this fight.
He has never fought anyone over the 140 pound limit except for Collazo, who despite what the judges saw, handed Hatton his first loss.  Mayweather on the other hand just recently beat 154 pound Oscar De La Hoya (without ever being hurt), embarrassed welterweights Zab Judah and Carlos Baldomir and destroyed superstar, Sharmba Mitchell in six rounds.  With Floyd's two-inch height advantage to boot, shouldn't Hatton be the one who is more likely to end up on his back?

#3.) Hatton won't be able to catch Mayweather
As illustrated quite well in the ODH fight, when an opponent gets frustrated against Mayweather he tries to bully him into the ropes and hit him wherever he can land leather. This tactic proved worthless for Oscar who managed to rough up Floyd's arms, elbows and hips but not his head or body.  Hatton will try to do the same thing except unlike ODH, who has a chin of steel, Hatton will get countered in these onslaughts and possibly hurt.  In the center of the ring Hatton doesn't stand a chance of landing a knockout blow.  I don't think anyone will argue with that.

#4.) Mayweather has a great chin
Oh did I forget to mention that Mayweather has been in with some of the hardest punchers in the sport and has never been hurt by a single punch?  Oh right I forgot that one crunching blow he took from DeMarcus Corley right before he proceeded to put chop-chop down twice en route to a near shut-out unanimous decision.  In regards to the body, for the very few who have been able to land there I've never seen Floyd phased.  Attacking the body just is not the way to beat Floyd Mayweather.  Hatton will try and try again to get to Floyd's body but it's not going to be easy and unlike Castillo, who I believe prepared for his fight with Hatton by engaging in tequila drinking contests in Tijuana, Floyd's body is armor (and thats if you can get to it).

Ok now that I've cleared that up lets move on to how this fight will play out.  Both men have seemingly limitless stamina and granite chins so I expect the match to be fought at a frenetic pace and go the distance.  Hatton will surely come out fast and furious like a man with something to prove.  During the first two or three rounds Mayweather will remain mostly defensive, blocking almost everything and letting Hatton settle down from his early temper tantrum.  Once Hatton has tasted his first teaspoon of frustration, Pretty Boy will start doing what he does best, sticking and moving.  This will be made all the more easy by his overwhelming seven-inch reach advantage.  Towards the middle rounds he will start landing his signature lead rights, and once he begins to get more comfortable will begin to unload his two and three punch combinations to the head and body.  Mayweather is an underrated body puncher and Hatton does not like it to the body.  This could slow the Hitman down just enough to render him a punching bag towards the very late rounds. 

Mayweather will also take away Hatton's greatest asset, his skillful ability to hold.  Hatton hugs better than Barney the Purple Dinosaur, and he has used this tactic effectively over the years to muffle opponents' offense and take quick rests when needed.  But he's going to have a hard time getting his arms around Mayweather.  Floyd is a master of spinning and countering out of holds.  He is so incredibly fast that grabbing him, let alone just touching him, is a challenge.  Don't forget, Mayweather is the bigger man and has a seven-inch reach advantage. 

But I'm not giving Hatton enough credit.  I expect the Hitman to press the action most of the twelve rounds, seeing glimpses of success and perhaps even getting the crowd on their feet a few times.  But Hatton's attacks will be far more for show than for effectiveness.  As demonstrated in the De La Hoya fight, the judges favor the aggressor and I see this as Hatton's biggest asset.  He will throw far more punches, land fewer and land less cleanly than the sharp-shooting Mayweather, but in the judges eyes, he will win rounds.  This leads to my belief that this fight will go to the cards in a split decision.  While two judges may see through the empty aggression of Hatton, at least one will be fooled and give the Englishman the nod.

While the two wild cards in the fight will be Mayweather's brittle hands and Hatton's tender skin, I believe Floyd is brave enough to deal with any hand mishaps and no doctor would stop this fight unless Hatton was on the verge of losing an eye.

The Bottom line is this. Even after Mayweather buries the Hatton mystique he will still be dogged by boxing fans and writers alike for being over-hyped and underachieving.  They will still demand that he beat Margarito, Williams and Cotto and even if he obliges, haters will still abound. 

It's tough to be the king.

Comments

[Andy at Fightpicks]

Hatton has a great chin and Mayweather isn't a KO puncher at 147

[Dominique]

Your analysis is thorough and convincing. Nevertheless, I hope the Fat Boy KO's the Pretty Boy.

You should address why you don't think it's probable then for Money to knock out the Hitman? You make this sound like an unfair fight. You are right. Money's reach definitely will be a huge advantage.

If he's a king and as good as you think he is, Mayweather should get a KO. He's a puss for dodging Williams and Cotto.

[Andy at Fightpicks]

2 reasons: 1.) I highly doubt Hatton has the ability to hurt let alone KO mayweather. It would be more likely that Hatton gets stopped (on cuts or accumulation). 2.) As I will explain in my post the judging of this fight may be tailor made for a split decision and the odds on that are far higher than a KO on either side.

[joe]

If you want a hedge, wouldn't it be better to back Hatton by TKO?