Miguel Cotto vs. Shane Mosley

November 10, 2007

OUTCOME: Cotto by (questionable) Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Mosley by Decision

THE BET:
4 units on Mosley by Decision at +350
2 units on Cotto by Decision at +200 (hedge)

THE PAYOUT:
0 units

Its almost hard to imagine but for the second weekend in a row boxing fans will be treated to a dream match-up certain to be another fight of the year contender. In this installment, the elder statesman Sugar Shane Mosley will be attempting to put a huge exclamation point on a magnificent career while the young rising giant, Miguel Cotto, will be looking to firmly establish himself as the best 147 pounder in the world.  In Mosley's prime I don't think this would even be close.  Cotto would be outmatched in every category.  However, Father Time will be the fourth man in the ring Saturday night and Mosley's nine-year disadvantage may prove too much for the blistering round after round assault of the young Puerto Rican. 

Age aside, on paper I like Mosley.  Apart from the obvious two inch height advantage and daunting seven-inch reach edge, Mosley has the hand-speed, footwork, ring smarts, experience, chin and perhaps even the power.  He looked superb in his last outing earlier this year against the highly skilled Luis Collazo and easily dispatched Vargas, a strong jr. middleweight, in their second match.  The only two men who have had Mosley's number are Winky Wright and Vernon Forrest, both very tall and extremely skilled boxers whose defensive styles seemed perfectly matched for the smaller Mosley.  With his straight ahead style and jr. welterweight frame, Cotto seems almost perfectly matched for Sugar Shane. 

But then there is the age and of course the intangibles. 

Will the 36-year-old legs and the dazzling hand speed be there in the late rounds when he will desperately need both?  If they are not he is in serious trouble.  Rounds 8-12 have proven to be a graveyard for many fighters who have stepped in with Cotto, and with 10,000 Puerto Rican fans thrown in the mix Mosley will be in very deep water if he starts acting his age. 

However, I'm putting my money on Sugar.  He may be 36 but even at 40 Mosley will be a tougher opponent than Zab Judah, Demarcus Corley or Ricardo Torres, all of whom have had Cotto in very dangerous territory. Mosley wouldn't have let Cotto off the hook.  He is a finisher.  Also, Shane has never been knocked out and the one time he tasted the canvas against Forrest he finished the fight on his feet and never seemed in real danger of being put down for the count.  I expect this to be a nail biter with Mosley winning the boxing match but occasionally getting bullied.  It will be a test of Mosley's will and conditioning to see if he can withstand the Cotto onslaught, but I believe he has trained very hard for this fight and will last the full twelve rounds.  While he may have the marks to show he's been in a fight, I believe he will also come away with a close decision and a cozy spot waiting for him in the hall of fame.