Fernando Vargas vs. Ricardo Mayorga

November 23, 2007

OUTCOME: Mayorga by Majority Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Vargas by Decision

THE BET:
5 units on Vargas by Decision at +300

THE PAYOUT:
-5 units

Well one has to ask two questions in regards to this matchup: 1.) Why do we care? and 2.) Why do we have to pay $50?  But rather than make social critique on the state of pay-per-view boxing, its my job to pick the winner so here goes it:

Both fighters have had long layoffs, but at more than one and a half years since his destruction at the hands of an aging Oscar De La Hoya I feel that the 34 year-old Mayorga is at a disadvantage in this department.  Also, Vargas will be much more comfortable at the catch weight of 164 while Mayorga has absolutely no business anywhere near that ballooned figure. In addition, although Vargas is coming off back to back losses against Shane Mosley he is only 29 years old and despite suffering two vicious knockouts at the hands of ODLH and Trinidad he is still in my eyes a fresher fighter than the way over-hyped  Nicaraguan brawler.  Since his two impressive wins over Vernon Forrest, Mayorga has been hardly more than a sideshow, with nary a single impressive showing aside from a decent performance against Michelle Piccirillo.  Add Vargas' one inch height advantage and five inch reach advantage and on paper this seems to be a total mismatch.  Vargas will outbox Mayorga in each and every round and unless he is lured into a brawl and gets caught with one big shot to the chin this should be one of his easier fights.  While I expect him to win a lopsided decision I don't think he still wields the kind of power it takes to drop the steel-chinned Mayorga.  As a result, I hope his corner reminds  him every round to keep the fight on the outside and box.  I believe they will.  The only thing that can stop Vargas in this one is his Mexican pride.  If he can keep this under check he will box himself to one last victory and put a nice punctuation mark on a fine but well underachieving career.