Juan Diaz vs. Julio Diaz

October 13, 2007

OUTCOME: Juan Diaz by KO

ANDY'S PICK: Juan Diaz by KO  

THE BET:
5 units on Juan Diaz by KO at +250

THE PAYOUT:
12.5 units

 

So its the battle of the Diaz's and while Juan seems to be the clearcut winner it could end up being one of the more entertaining fights this weekend.  Although Julio is coming off an impressive third round destruction of the dangerous but aged Jesus Chavez, aside from a good showing against Courtney Burton in 2004, this Diaz has never had a defining victory in his entire career.  The beating he took from Jose Luis Castillo in 2005 showed that Julio, although a good fighter, is not a world beater.  Juan Diaz on the other hand is a world beater.  Although he is still amazingly only 24 years old, 'Baby Bull' has manhandled some world-class veterans including Acelino Freitas, Julien Lorcy and Lakva Sim.  More importanatly it seems thats hes never been hurt in a fight or even by a single punch for that matter.  He took Freitas' best shots without flinching and not many lightweights let alone welterweights can pull that off.  Baby Bull as his moniker suggests just keeps coming forward until you have nowhere to hide.  So how will Julio  overcome the chin, power, boxing skills, relentless pressure and huge heart of Juan Diaz.  He wont.   He will try to move and he will try to use his 3" height and reach advantage to keep Juan at bay with the jab, but it wont be enough.  Eventually he'll tire and Juan will get inside and bully him viciously.  Also as Julio does have a tendency to sometimes trade against his corner's advice, I expect there to be several exchanges, almost all of which will go in favor of Juan.  I believe that in one of these exchanges, Juan will put Julio on the canvas.  Whether or not he gets up and whether or not he gets knocked down again  for good is a hard question to answer.  But with the odds the way they are, to me the only bet is to go for a KO by the 'Baby Bull'.  If Julio fights the smartest, tallest fight of his life and never makes a single mistake for twelve rounds there is a slight possibility he could pull of a close split decision.  So I don't think it hurts to throw a unit on a Julio Diaz decision with such long odds.