Andy's Fight Picks

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. vs. Marco Antonio Rubio

February 4, 2012

OUTCOME: TBD

ANDY'S PICK: Rubio by Decision  

                                                                     

THE BET:
2.0 Units on Rubio to Win at +300

THE PAYOUT:
6.0 Units

 

Wow what a card! Hats off to HBO for some excellent matchmaking, not only for the main event but also a sizzler of a co-attraction with Donaire/Vasquez. While I believe Vasquez will give Donaire a bit more than he's expecting I think its Chavez who is really in for a surprise.

For whatever reason, the oddsmakers have made Rubio a 3-1 underdog. Below is a list of reasons why I think this is ludicrous.

1.) Both fighters have one common opponent in Matt Vanda. Chavez got a hometown split decision in his first meeting with Vanda and then won another very hard fought decision in the rematch. Rubio walked through Vanda before icing him in round 5.

2.) Rubio has been a natural middleweight nearly his whole career while Chavez started at lightweight and only moved up to middleweight two years ago.

3.) The only notable fighter Chavez has beaten was the light punching European style fighter Zbik. He barely escaped with a friendly majority decision. Rubio on the other hand stopped the rising superstar David Lemieux with a resounding seventh round TKO. Lemieux hasn't been the same since.

4.) Rubio has reeled off 6 straight knockouts. Since moving up to middleweight, Chavez has only managed to stop one of five.

5.) Chavez gets hit a lot and doesn't pack much pop. Rubio throws a lot of accurate, hard punches and has a great chin.

Overall I expect this to be a great action packed fight. However as the rounds progress I suspect Rubio will land more and more clean punches while avoiding or absorbing what comes back at him. In the end, the courage and chin of Chavez will allow him to cross the finish line on his feet, but he will do so in second place. Whether its split, majority or unanimous I expect Rubio to walk away with a well earned decision victory.

The way to bet this fight is 2 Units on Rubio to Win at +300. While there is some degree of liklihood that he will stop Chavez, its not worth the risk. Good Luck! 

Miguel Cotto vs. Antonio Margarito II

December 3, 2011

OUTCOME: Cotto by TKO

ANDY'S PICK: Margarito by late TKO 

                                                                    

THE BET:
2.0 Units on Margarito to Win at +200
1.0 Units on Margarito by KO at +325

THE PAYOUT:
-3.0 Units

 

If there's one thing about rematches i've learned over the years its that the guy who won the first fight almost always wins the next. However, this rule doesn't necessarily apply when illegal handwraps are involved. But despite the big hubbub surrounding Margarito's alleged cheating I find no reason to believe that the supposed plaster hand wraps in the first fight were the deciding factor for the outcome.  Even if Margarito did cheat, which he most likely did, I picked him to win the first fight and I'm picking him to win the second. Here's why:

1.) Cotto cannot fight going backwards. He has proved this time and time again and with a pressure fighter like Margarito he is at a huge disadvatage.

2.) Cotto has stamina issues in the late rounds. Against a freight train like Margarito this is a death sentence. Add Margarito's excellent body work to the equation and it gets even worse.

3.) Cotto can't hurt Margarito. In the first fight he hit him with everything and anything in his arsenal and Margarito never flinched. If anything Cotto's power has diminished since his horrible beatings at the hands of Pacquiao and Margarito. He barely was able to stop a washed up Mayorga and he couldn't even hurt Yuri Foreman.

4.) Cotto has a suspect chin. Although he is a true warrior, Cotto gets hurt a lot. Margarito hits hard and often. Can Cotto withstand another 12 round onslaught? I'd bet against it.

5.) Margarito is the naturally bigger man. Although Cotto is stockier and more compact, Margarito enjoys a 4 inch height advantage and probably walks around at 165.

 

The one variable in this fight will be who is more shop worn. Both men have been on the receiving end of hellacious beatings over the past few years and both have certainly been damaged. My bet is Cotto is worse for wear and it will show tonight. I expect this fight to play out almost identically to the first. Sure its possible that Cotto can survive the 12 rounds and eke out a close decision but my money is against it.

The way to bet this fight is as follows. Put 2 Units on Margarito to win straight at +200 and 1 Unit on the knockout at +325. Its certainly conceivable this fight can go to a close decision and therefore I wouldn't want to put all my bread on a knockout. However the fight is in New York and based on Margarito's popoularity I highly doubt he will get a close nod. However the odds on a knockout don't offer a big enough premium over the straight bet to warrant the full boat. Good luck!

Floyd Mayweather vs. Victor Ortiz

September 17, 2011

OUTCOME: Mayweather by KO

ANDY'S PICK: Mayweather by KO                                                                        

THE BET:
3.0 Units on Mayweather by KO at +200

THE PAYOUT:
6.0 Units

 

There are two things i believe will happen tonight. One we will be treated to an entertaining fight and two, that entertainment will be short lived. If the Berto and Maidana fights proved anything, its that Berto can't take a punch. Sure, the Berto matchup showed  Ortiz has heart but if he's getting hit with cleaner, more numerous and harder shots from the opening bell will that heart be able to save him? I think not. Will his southpaw stance befuddle Mayweather? Ask Zab Judah.

Resumes are not even worth comparing. Mayweather has fought and beat a who's who of 5 different weight divisions over the past ten years. Ortiz has fought Berto, Maidana and Lamont Peterson. Of those fights he was only victorious in one, and he was on the canvas twice in that bout. Granted it seems like Ortiz's skills are improving, have they improved enough to go from barely edging B+ fighers to beating an A+ fighter? I think you know the answer to that. Lastly, aside from all the obvious advantages let's not forget that this is only Ortiz's second fight at welterweight whereas Mayweather hasn't fought below welter since 2005 when he decimated Arturo Gatti.

The way I see this fight playing out is similar to the Mayweather/Hatton match but quicker and shorter. Ortiz will come out blazing trying to take it to Mayweather. This will lead to some exciting moments when it seems like Ortiz is getting to Floyd but Floyd's defense will parry this onslaught with ease. On occasion he will counter Ortiz with hard rights and this will begin to give Ortiz pause. Once it becomes a boxing match, Mayweather will begin to shine. By shine I mean crack Ortiz's weak defense and hit him with everything he has to offer. I expect by the middle to late rounds Ortiz will be battered and in a position to be KO'd or possibly put out of his mercy by his corner or the ref.

The way to bet this fight is simple. 3 Units on Mayweather by KO. Good luck!

 

Vladimir Klitschko vs. David Haye

July 2, 2011

OUTCOME: Klitschko by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Haye by KO                                                                        

THE BET:
3.0 Units on Haye to win at +200

THE PAYOUT:
-3.0 Units

 

If my memory serves me I believe the last good heavyweight fight took place before some of my readers were born. The names Holyfield, Bowe, Foreman and Tyson were probably involved and you can safely assume that it wasn't in the most recent decade and barely made it into the decade before that. Will Haye/Klitschko give the heavyweight division the kickstart it has needed for the better part of 20 years? The answer is absolutely not. However, beggars can't be choosers and I for one am going to allow myself to be excited for this ecellent heavyweight matchup.

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While Vladimir Klitschko has appeared to be invinvible for the past 7 years, since his KO loss to Lamon Brewster he has fought a long line of pretenders, washed up contenders and nobodys. Perhaps his most impressive victory in that stretch was six years ago when he got off the canvas three times to win a unanimous decision agianst the then hot contender, Samuel Peter. However, Peter was later exposed as a one dimensional brawler with a bad work ethic. Simply put there has been no one for Vlad to fight, except for his brother, and we all know that match will never happen. On a side note, Vitali would win that match with one arm tied behind his back.

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So what about David Haye?

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Well for one thing he has proved he can fight well against very big men. He illustrated this in dramatic fashion against Audley Harrison in his most recent outing and demonstrated it beyond a resonable doubt against the circus giant, Valuev. While Vlad is clearly a better fighter than both of these men he still has many of the attributes of a large, lumbering heavyweight. He's not all that fast, not tremendously athletic, lacks a strong chin and doesn't know how to adjust his gameplan midfight. His big edge lies in his hammering jab.  Of course there is a pretty damn good right hand behind that jab but he is only a two punch fighter. Haye on the other hand is extremely fast and athletic for a big man and is an artist in the ring, making adjustment, showing angles and mixing up a variety of hard punches. The one thing he shares with Vlad is a suspect chin. However, he has shown time and time again (see Barret, Mormeck) and that he can get up from a knockdown and win a fight. So while he shares chinniness with Vlad, he is far tougher than him. In the face of overwhelming force, Vlad folds. While you can make a good case that Vlad has more power than Haye, their respective KO percentages at 84% to 88% tell a different story. Haye has tremendous power and while it might not be quite as much as Vlad's per square inch its more than Lamon Brewster and Corrie Sanders combined.

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With his speed and mobility, Haye will be able to do what no other fighter has done in the past few years, which is get inside the Klitschko jab. While Vlad has been tought well by Manny Steward on the use of clinching, Haye will be able to inflict damage before the hugging begins. Once Haye touches Vlad with the first big shot of the fight you will see the Russian backpedal out of danger, putting himself at even greater risk for a followup combination assault. If Haye can avoid the Klitschko right hand, which I believe he can, he will win this fight in dramatic knockout fashion and I don't think it will take him long. I would guess it will be inside six rounds.

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The way to bet this fight is simple. 3 Units on Haye to Win at +200. The odds on a knockout are +220, thereby eliminating that option as a meaningful value. While Klitschko can win this fight by excessive hugging or catching Haye with a monster right hand, I suspect he will be in over his head in this bout and will succumb early. Good luck!

 

Carl Froch vs. Glen Johnson

June 4, 2011

OUTCOME: Froch by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Froch by Decision  - LOCK OF THE MONTH!                                                                        

THE BET:
6.0 Units on Froch by Decision at -150

THE PAYOUT:
4.0 Units

 

In this battle for bronze in the Super 6 tourney it looks like we have all the makings of an "out with the old and in with the new" type of evening. While Glen Johnson has fought brilliantly into his forties, he is no Bernard Hopkins. Where Hopkins exhibits ring mastery, Johnson is simply a workhorse. He knows how to rough you up on the inside, keep up a gruelling pace and avoid being on the receiving end of the really big shots. This unfortunately will not be enough to stop Carl Froch. Froch simply has too much in his arsenal for the aging Johnson. In addition to being a skilled boxer puncher, Froch posseses a worldclass chin, and this asset is what will prevent Johnson from having any shot of winning this fight. Add to this the stamina sapping move in weight down to 168 for Johnson and we have what seems to be the lock of the month.

The way I see this playing out is as follows. Johnson will have his moments in the first half of the fight, luring Froch into the inside game and giving almost as much as he takes. However, by the later rounds, Johnson will begin to get gassed by the volume of punches coming from Froch and he will no longer be able to dictate where the fight is fought. At this point Froch will begin hurting him from the outside and landing combinations at will. While Johnson will take an enormous amount of punishment in the second half of the fight, his sturdy chin and overall tougness will keep him from suffering a knockout. Meanwhile Froch will coast to a relatively easy unanimous decision.

The way to bet this fight is simple. 6 Units on Froch by Decision at -150. Both fighters have tremendous chins so a knockout is nearly out of the question. Good luck!

Bernard Hopkins vs. Jean Pascal II

May 21, 2011

OUTCOME: Hopkins by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Hopkins by Decision                                                                          

THE BET:
3.0 Units on Hopkins by Decision at +210

THE PAYOUT:
6.3 Units

 

Ok before I even begin to pontificate about this rematch let's just throw Hopkins' age out of the equation. He's simply a freak of nature, and no matter how many times people remind him how old he is he just refuses to act his age.

My belief is that Hopkins will pick up right where he left off in the first fight. The two knockdowns he suffered in the first fight caught him off guard while he was feeling out Pascal. Once he figured him out, he proceeded to dominate the rest of the fight. While the judges disagreed, I had Bernard winning every single round after the 2nd knockdown. All one needs to do is look at the Compubox stats which showed Hopkins outlanding Pascal in power punches at an astounding 2 to 1 ratio.

The way I see this fight playing out is simply a continuation of the 12th round in the first fight. Hopkins understands now that Pascal is a one trick pony. He fights only in bursts and Hopkins knows exactly how to neutralize that tactic. He can time him, counter and clinch. I expect Hopkins to dominate from the opening bell. When Pascal realizes what he's got himself into he will start to use his legs to avoid engagement. This will only further compound his problems as it will cause him to tire. At the end of the first fight, the 46 year old Hopkins was by far the frehser fighter and Pascal, who is known to have late round stamina issues was nearly out on his feet. While Hopkins will most likely win almost every round of the fight I think Pascal will find a way to remain standing at the final bell. This will be as a result of his iron chin, his evasive tactics and Hopkins' lack of one punch KO power.

The way to bet this fight is simple. 3 Units on Hopkins by Decision at +210. While I think its entirely possible that Hopkins could force Pascal to quit its very hard to see that happening. If you want to play it safe feel free to just bet Hopkins straight at +110, but up your wager to 5 Units. Good luck! 

 

Manny Pacquiao vs. Shane Mosley

May 7, 2011

OUTCOME: Pacquiao by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Pacquiao by Decision                                                                              

THE BET:
3.0 Units on Pacquiao by Decision at +220

0.5 Units Hedge on a Mosley KO in first 3 Rounds at +1700

THE PAYOUT:
6.1 Units

 

Everytime these "superfight" mismatches come down the pipe I, as well as most of the boxing community, get slightly brainwashed in favor of the underdog. This time was no different as I found myself last week wondering, hey maybe the old codger can pull it off. Then in the past few days I shook those thoughts out of my my head not unlike a cartoon character who rearranges his face after having it mis-shapen by a falling anvil. The fact of the matter is Mosley is going to take a drubbing in this fight, most likely the worst drubbing he has ever taken. Sure, he has a puncher's chance but you can say that about any fight. I just hope he doesn't get hurt.

There are several variables that make the winner of this fight almost a foregone conclusion. A recent resume comparison is the most glaring. Since his destruction of a badly out of shape and weight shrunken Margarito two and half years ago, Mosley was whipped like a badly behaved schoolboy by Mayweather and fought to a draw with Sergio Mora, yes the Sergio Mora of The Contender TV series. In that same timeframe, Pacquiao destroyed a supremely conditioned Margarito, pummeled Cotto, made a mockery of Josh Clottey and practically committed homicide against Ricky Hatton.

The next factor is age. Sure there are some ageless wonders floating around these days, Bernard Hopkins being the best example, but 99.9% of fighters in the lighter weights are totally spent by their late 30's. Mosley will turn 40 this summer. Against a prime Pacquiao he stands no chance on age alone.

Then we turn to style matchup. Mosley hates movers. He likes a guy to just stand in front of him and trade. He always wins against such an opponent (Mayorga, Margarito, Vargas, etc.). However, when he has a moving target to contend with its a totally different story. He often seems baffled. If there's anyone who is a mover its Pacquiao. Fighters often find Pacquiao standing behind them after he lands a combination only to turn around and take another few pops right on the chin. Mosley's defense also leaves a lot to be desired and, as we've seen before, this is a death sentence against Pacquiao. Aside from the detail that Pacquiao is hittable and Mosley does still have some dynamite in that right hand, this is a terrible matchup for Sugar Shane.

The last point I'd like to make focuses on Mosley's strength, which unfortunately in this fight will only lead to his likely hospitalization. He is tough as all hell and is one of the fiercest competitors on the planet. Short of the referee or his corner stopping the bout, Mosley will fight to the death and due to his granite chin will most likely not get knocked down until then. Add to this the size comparison between the two fighters and Pacquiao might just not have enough powder to put Sugar on his back. Remember, Mosley has not been knocked down in almost 10 years and has fought some serious bangers along the way.

I see the early rounds as far more competitive than some recent Pacquiao fights. Mosley will be aggressive in these frames, knowing that his only chance to win is an early knockout. However, after Pacquiao weathers the early storm he will start doing what he does best, landing clean combinations. Mosley will slowly become a punching bag as his 39 year old legs begin to fail him. In the end he will make it to the finish line only because of his chin, his size and his heart.

The way to bet this fight is 3 Units on Pacquiao by decision at +220. I recommend a hedge bet of 0.5 Units on a Mosley knockout in the first 3 rounds at +1700. Mosley's only chance is to take Pacquiao out early. After the third I think this boat will have sailed. GOOD LUCK!!

 

Andre Berto Vs. Victor Ortiz

April 15, 2011

OUTCOME: Ortiz by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Ortiz by Decision                                                                              

THE BET:
1.0 Units on Ortiz to Win at +300

THE PAYOUT:
3.0 Units

 

In an action packed Saturday night of boxing I think this matchup will prove to be the most entertaining. These young sluggers have a lot to prove and both know how critical this bout is for their respective futures in the sport.

I was very surprised to see the opening money line at +300 for Ortiz. While he had a mental and physical collapse against Maidana, I don't think there is anyone in the division (jr. welter) aside for perhaps Tim Bradley who makes Vicious Victor that heavy an underdog. I think the oddsmakers are focusing too much on Ortiz's shortcomings and not considering how well he matches up with Berto.

While Ortiz doesn't boast a huge resume, he did dominate the super-rugged Maidana for several rounds before crumbling in the 6th. And to be honest, that to me is more impressive than anything Berto has done. The only real gem on Berto's resume is a very close decision win over Luis Collazo, a fight where Berto was in serious trouble and in my opinion should have come out on the losing end.

The Collazo and Maidana fights might prove to be very telling tomorrow night. Ortiz, like Collazo can box and move when necessary. This could give Berto a lot of trouble. Ortiz also matches up well against a slugger. He proved this against Maidana, although he eventually was worn down by the Argentinian's onslaught.

Berto has a lot of speed and decent power but he lacks movement and is very hittable. He has trouble adapting and has an untested and suspect chin. I expect Ortiz to expose Berto's two-dimensionality and eventiually catch him with some big shots. The ending will all depend on whether or not we see the "vicious" side of Victor. He will get touched by Berto and depending on how he reacts will determine the rest of the fight. Has he gotten over Maidana or does it still haunt him?

I expect the fight to be a feeling out process for a couple of rounds before Berto starts getting aggressisive. If Ortiz is able to withstand Berto's assault, I believe Victor will start gaining confidence in the middle rounds and begin to land combinations. Towards the end of the fight I see Berto tiring and getting sloppy. This will be Ortiz's chance to score a late KO or outwork the Haitian to a close decision victory.

The way to bet this fight is 1 Unit on Ortiz to Win at +300. There is too much risk on the prop bets as I can see a knockout being as likely as a decision. Good Luck!

Timothy Bradley vs. Devon Alexander

January 29, 2011

OUTCOME: Bradley by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Bradley by Decision                                                                             

THE BET:
3.0 Units on Bradley by Decision at +100

THE PAYOUT:
3.0 Units

 

It took a while but we finally have another fight worth watching on Saturday night. This battle of unbeaten champions should prove to be highly enjoyable and competitive.

While this is not an easy fight to call, Alexander's last outing against Kotelnik makes the prediciton a bit less cloudy. While the Kotelnik bout didn't expose Alexander, it did show some cracks in his armor. Against a tough, durable, aggressive boxer puncher, Alexander can be made to look bad. His defensive shortcomings will certainly be tested again by Bradley.

The way i see this fight playing out is simple. Bradley will win the war of attrition. He will get the better of Alexander in most exchanges and he will wear him down with pressure and punch count. In the end Bradley will win a well earned unanimous decision and hopefully put himself in the running for the Pacquiao sweepstakes.

The way to bet this fight is 3 Units on Bradley by Decision at +100. Both fighters are light punchers and have solid chins. While a knockout isn't out of the question, the odds don't give a proper value. Good luck!

Bernard Hopkins vs. Jean Pascal

December 18, 2010

OUTCOME: Draw

ANDY'S PICK: Hopkins by Split Decision                                                                             

THE BET:
2.0 Units on Hopkins to win at +200

THE PAYOUT:
4.0 Units

 

Does Bernard Hopkins, one month shy of his 46th birthday, have enough ring smarts to overcome youth, speed AND a hometown advatage? Despite every bone in my body saying no, I think this will be yet another time when B-Hop proves the world wrong.

Hopkins looked most of 44 in his last two lackluster performaces against Roy Jones and Enrique Cornelius but I don't believe he was really motivated for those fights. Yes, he wanted to get revenge for his loss to Jones, but he never really had any doubt about the outcome of that rematch. Cornelius was simply a nobody. Now Hopkins is fighting for history and I believe that he will be as driven to win this fight as he was against Felix Trindidad back in 2001.

If we remove the inexplicable victory over Chad Dawson from Pascal's resume we see a garden variety B+ fighter with a decisive loss to an A- fighter in Carl Froch. I truly believe that Dawson's personal problems took him out of the match with Pascal. He never pressed the action, seemed lost and in the end that fight was decided by a cut. If there was a rematch I would bet the house on Dawson. Bernard's resume speaks volumes but due to his age we should really just focus on his last few fights. Aside from Jones and Cornelius, Hopkins has easily dispatched future hall of fame fighters, Winky Wright and Antonio Tarver and in my opinion won a close decision against the great Joe Calzaghe. The only concern with any of these recent bouts is the fatigue Bernard has shown down the stretch. Aside from the Pavlik fight, B-Hop seemed to be taking rounds off late in fights as illustrated by large drops in punch output. This I believe will be the critical factor in the fight. It will all come down whether or not Bernard's 45 year old legs can take the young Pascal's pace for 12 rounds.The bottom line is that no one has ever decisively beaten Bernard Hopkins and I don't expect that to change tomorrow night.

To be honest I imagine this will be a relatively boring and sloppy fight. Hopkins will try to use every trick in the veteran book. No doubt this will wear on Pascal, who tired late against Dawson. It's hard for me to see Hopkins having a disadvatage on the outside or the inside. Pascal is quick but not that quick and he lacks power and defense. Hopkins will be able to land his lead right frequently and break Pascal down with rough and dirty infighting. I don't see Hopkins getting hit much at all in the fight. Pascal isn't half as crafty as Calzaghe, Wright or Tarver. In the end I expect Hopkins to gut out a few more rounds than Pascal. Seeing that some of the rounds might be difficult to judge I expect the Canadian locale to take two rounds away from Hopkins leaving his with a razor thin split decision and new world record under his belt.

The way to bet this fight is 2 Units on Hopkins to Win at +200. The +300 odds on a decision aren't rich enough to compensate for the realistic, but unlikely, chance that Hopkins scores a late knockout. Good luck!

Amir Khan vs. Marcos Maidana

December 11, 2010

OUTCOME: Khan by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Khan by Decision                                                                             

THE BET:
3.0 Units on Khan by Decision at +250

THE PAYOUT:
7.5 Units

 

In what should be Amir Khan's biggest test to date, the undefeated prospect will be taking on the ultra rugged knockout puncher Marcos Maidana. While I suspect there to be a few tense moments for the 24 year-old champion, I expect this to be another day at the office for the supremely talented Khan.

Looking at resumes will show Andriy Kotelnik as the common opponent. Maidana earned a hard fought decision and Khan outpointed him with ease. However resumes don't tell much in this fight. This one really comes down to styles and Maidana's style plays right into Khan's hands.

I expect Khan to make this a boxing match and stymie Maidana's charges with a persistent jab throughout the fight.  Khan's defense and discipline should prove too much for Maidana to win this on brute force alone. I'm sure Freddie Roach has prepared Khan beautifully to avoid Maidana's power and therefore all signs point towards a unanimous decision for the champ.

I see the the early rounds of the fight being a feeling out process where Khan might be in some danger. However once he figures Maidana out and finds his range, I expect this to become target pratice for Khan by the middle rounds. Only the toughness and solid beard of Maidana will allow this fight to go the distance.

The bet here is 3 Units on Khan by Decision at +250. While Maidana has the power to knock Khan out I don't expect him to find the target. The biggest risk is Khan scoring a knockout, although based on Maidana's record and Khan's knowledge of his power I expect Khan to take few chances. Good luck!

Manny Pacquiao vs. Antonio Margarito

November 13, 2010

OUTCOME: Pacquiao by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Margarito by late round TKO                                                                             

THE BET:
2.0 Units on Margarito to win at +300

THE PAYOUT:
-2.0 Units

 

I'm not sure if 24/7 has sold me a bridge again but for whatever reason i am quite amped for tomorrow night's fight. While Pacquiao's last outing against Joshua Clottey was a snoozer I expect this match to be filled with fireworks and exhilirating toe to toe action.

Anyone who is dismissing Margarito for his performace against Shane Mosley is in for quite a surprise. Aside from the fact that Margarito was debilitated from a thirty pound weight loss in the weeks leading up to that night, he couldn't have been more distracted from his pre-fight hand wrap fiasco. Mosley, who feasts on guys with straight ahead styles, took advantage of both these factors and pummeled a defenseless Margarito into oblivion. On Saturday Pacquiao will be facing a highly motivated, refocused and  supremely conditioned fighter who I promise will look nothing like the man we saw against Sugar Shane.

There are several reasons why i believe this will be Pacquiao's toughest test since his days at Jr. Lightweight, the most salient of which is Margarito's size. At 5'11", the Tijuana Tornado is a full five inches taller than Pacquiao and has a reach edge of six inches. His walk around weight is about twenty five pounds more than Pacquiao's and he hasn't fought below welterweight since he was seventeen years old. The next element in order of importance is Margarito's chin. Aside from his disasterous night against Mosely, Margarito has never been so much as fazed by a punch and he's fought some very big hitters, including Miguel Cotto, Kermit Cintron and Paul Williams. His iron chin will be a major factor in the fight as i expect he will be able to walk through Pacquiao and wear him down as the fight enters the later rounds. Rounding out my top three is Margarito's style. Pacquiao has not faced a punch output like Margarito's since his bouts with Erik Morales and Juan Manuel Marquez. As those fights illustrated, Pacquiao is vulnerbale to high output fighters who can expose his one true weakness, shoddy defense. Last but not least is power. Pacquiao has never faced a puncher like Margarito and despite exhibiting a fantastic chin in recent fights, he will no doubt get rocked at some point in this match. Depending on how well he can evade Margarito's follow up, the referee might end up stopping the contest.

The way i see this fight playing out is similar to how the Cotto/Margarito fight unfolded. I expect Pacquiao to dominate the early rounds, hitting Margarito with fast, punishing combinations and getting out of harm's way. However, as Margarito's non-stop onslaught begins to wear on Pac-Man, the Mexican will start scoring with power punches and shift the momentum. I believe that in the late rounds Pacquiao will be hurt and will not be able to recover. A stoppage in the championship rounds seems like the most likely outcome.

The way to bet this fight is 2 Units on Margarito to Win at +300. While I don't see Margarito winning a decision, the odds on a KO arent rich enough at +450 to validate this risk. GOOD LUCK!

Juan Manuel Lopez vs. Rafael Marquez

November 6, 2010

OUTCOME: Marquez RTD in 9th (Shoulder Injury)

ANDY'S PICK: Marquez by Decision or Late TKO                                                                                

THE BET:
2.0 Units on Marquez to win at +250

THE PAYOUT:
-2.0 Units

 

Finally!

It seems like its been months since the last TV worthy fight, but on Saturday night two warriors will do battle in what promises to be a strong candidate for fight of the year. While many fans and bookmakers alike see Juan Ma as a strong favorite, I see this as a pick'em fight, with a slight edge to Marquez.

Aside from his epic wars with Israel Vasquez, Marquez has not had a hint of trouble with any opponent in over 9 years since his split decision win ove Mark 'Too Sharp' Johnson. In his most recent fight he dominated Vasquez and put him away in the 3rd round. On the other hand, Lopez was taken the distance in a very close fight with Rogers Mtagwa (who was annihilated by Yuriorkis Gamboa) and was knocked down and in serious trouble in his most recent bout with Bernabe Concepcion. Now I understand that Lopez is by far the younger and less shopworn of the two but is he really a 3:1 favorite over a hall of fame veteran like Rafael Marquez? Absolutely not.

I see the first few rounds of this fight being mostly a feeling out session with both men occasionally dishing out some punishment. In the middle rounds I expect Marquez' Mexican heart to come out in full fury. I'd be surprised if neither men get knocked down in these frames but either way I expect them to persever until the late rounds. At this point I suspect the stronger Marquez will pour it on and pummel Lopez into an 11th round TKO.

The way to bet this fight is 2.0 Units on Marquez to Win at +250. While really anything can happen in this fight you are getting a great value at +250. Good luck!!

Shane Mosley vs. Sergio Mora

September 18, 2010

OUTCOME: Draw

ANDY'S PICK: Mora by Decision                                                                                 

THE BET:
2.0 Units on Mora by Decision at +300

THE PAYOUT:
0.0 Units

 

Why Shane Mosley agreed to fight the dangerous but unknown Sergio Mora instead of cashing in on one last big payday with a marquis name is completely beyond me. This could turn out to be the worst career choice of the decade.

First let's discuss size and strength. Mora is not only a natural middleweight and three full inches taller than Mosley, but he alao posseses a very potent chin, having never been knocked down in his professional career. With his size and chin he takes away Mosley's best weapon, power.

Now let's look at resumes. Mora has been in relatively light (a split in two fights with an aged Vernon Forrest) compared to Hall of Fame shoo-in Mosley, but Mosley has had serious trouble with boxers like Mora over the past few years. His only impressive wins have come against fighters who are easy to find such as Mayorga, Margarito and Vargas. Against boxers such as Collazo, Mayweather and Wright, Mosley has at times looked lost and dare I say it, old. The best comparison to Mora I believe would be the Collazo fight. The difference is that Mora, while not quite as slick, is a lot bigger than Collazo and wont get bullied.

I believe that this fight will be an unfortunate coda for Mosley in an otherwise brilliant career. I see him getting outboxed and eventually tiring in the late rounds. Unless he can land a Sunday punch on the tough bearded Mexican I believe he will be on the losing side of a unanimous but competitive decision.

The way to bet this fight is 2 Units on Mora by Decision at +300. Mora is a light puncher and has no real chance of dropping Mosley (who has never been knocked out). He is also a bit too big, elusive and strong chinned for there to be a real risk of him being a knockout victim. GOOD LUCK!!

Chad Dawson vs. Jean Pascal

August 14, 2010

OUTCOME: Pascal by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Dawson by Decision                                                                                 

THE BET:
6.0 Units on Dawson by Decision at -120

THE PAYOUT:
-6.0 Units

This one couldn't be more simple. Chad Dawson can box circles around Pascal but Pascal's chin can easily stand up to the weak punching power of Dawson. Bet 6 Units on Dawson to win by Decision at -120. GOOD LUCK!!!

Tavoris Cloud vs. Glen Johnson

August 07, 2010

OUTCOME: Cloud by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Johnson by Decision                                                                                 

THE BET:
2.0 Units on Johnson to Win at +200

THE PAYOUT:
-2.0 Units

Coming off the heels of an impressive KO win over the rugged Yusaf Mack and a very competitive decision loss to pound for pound contender Chad Dawson, Glen 'The Road Warrior" Johnson, at the ripe old age of 41, is being thrown in with yet another extremely dangerous, youthful fighter in Tavoris Cloud. You need to tip your hat off to anyone who is willing to tangle with Johnson, but my guess is Cloud may have written a check that his fists and/or chin will be unable to cash.

Resumes speak volumes in this fight and Glen Johnson's reads like a future hall of fame inductee roster. The only respectable name on Cloud's CV is the washed up, former contender Clinton Woods. Johnson fought a much younger Woods, three times, losing only once in a razor thin decision (one of many injustices Johnson has faced at the hands of judges). It's beyond clear who has the advantage in experience. Let's not forget that Cloud has only fought once in the past two years, so ring rust will definitely be a big factor.

Cloud is going to come out swinging in the early rounds, hoping he can knock the old veteran's head off before the fight reaches the middle rounds. When this strategy fails, Cloud will have to do something he is not very good at, defend himself from a barrage of non-stop power punches. While Cloud possesses a seemingly rugged chin, I'm not sure he will be able to withstand the number of clean shots I expect Johnson to land in the middle and later rounds. As for Cloud's power, well all one can do is wish him good luck in cracking the nearly invincible chin of the Road Warrior.

In the end I expect this fight will most likely go to the scorecards. Based on Johnson's history of getting robbed in close decisions, there is some concern here. However I expect him to be so clearly in the lead at the end of 12 rounds that only the most crooked of judges will score against him. That being said I expect a close decision. There is a respectable chance of Johnson scoring the late TKO but based upon Cloud's tough (but untested) chin, I'm not going to put all my money on that outcome.

The way to bet this fight is simple: 2 Units on Johnson to Win at +200. I learned the hard way with Bernard Hopkins that some fighters just never get old. Johnson I think is one of those fighters. GOOD LUCK!!

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. vs. John Duddy

June 26, 2010

OUTCOME: Chavez by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Chavez by Decision                                                                                  

THE BET:
4.0 Units on Chavez by Decision at +125

THE PAYOUT:
5.0 Units

Very simply Chavez is far too skilled a boxer to be outpointed by Duddy, and the strong chinned Duddy is too big for Chavez, a natural welterweight, to knockout. Let's not forget that this match is taking place about 100 miles from the Mexican border and about 6,000 miles from Ireland.

The way to bet this fight is 4 units on Chavez by decision at +125. The only risk here is that Duddy gets lucky and lands a Hail Mary on Chavez's chin. The problem for the Irishman is that he won't be able to find Chavez's head or body, let alone his chin. GOOD LUCK!

Andre Ward vs. Allan Green

June 19, 2010

OUTCOME: Ward by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Ward by Decision                                                                                  

THE BET:
3.0 Units on Ward by Decision at +120

THE PAYOUT:
3.6 Units

After a bit of a hiatus it's good to see the Super Six back in action because it guarantees that we will see a highly competitive fight. While Allan Green is slightly over matched by the pound for pound contender Andre Ward, he is an aggressive and ferocious fighter who comes to win. However, Ward is coming of a dominating performance against former Super Six favorite, Mikkel Kessler and with a decisive win tonight, Ward will place himself securely as the betting favorite to win this tournament.

The best way to look at this fight is through the common opponent Edison Miranda, a fighter who decisioned Green and lost a lopsided affair to Ward. While it is true that Green was ill for this fight, he was unable to handle the pressure of Miranda, despite hurting him on occasion and even knocking him down in the eight round. Ward on the other hand easily dismantled Miranda for twelve rounds, neutralizing his power with an excellent jab, combination punching and lateral movement. While Green suffered the sole loss on his record he did prove toughness by getting off his back twice to finish the fight. It is important to note that aside from these two knockdowns, Green has not tasted the canvas in his entire career. Due to Ward's limited punching power I believe strongly that Green will finish the fight on his feet.

I see this fight turning out to a be a boxing clinic from Andre Ward. While I expect Green to pose challenges in spurts throughout the fight I see Ward dominating the action with his superior boxing skills and foot movement.

The way to bet this fight is Ward by Decision at +120. While a knockout isn't out of the question it would contradict both fighters' resumes. The risk of Green knocking out Ward is so remote that it's not even worth a small hedge bet. GOOD LUCK!

Miguel Cotto vs. Yuri Foreman

June 5, 2010

OUTCOME: Cotto By TKO

ANDY'S PICK: Foreman by Decision                                                                                  

THE BET:
3.0 Units on Foreman to win at +200
1.0 Units on Foreman by KO at +750

THE PAYOUT:
-4.0 Units

I want you to look carefully at the above photo. Yuri Foreman is literally towering over Miguel Cotto (four inches to be exact). Add to that a five inch reach advantage, the fact that Cotto has never fought above 147 plus the undeniable truth that he is a shop worn fighter, and we start to see some serious problems for the Puerto Rican.

I really don't think Foreman is an exceptional fighter but he is very smart, very fast and very elusive. He man-handled Daniel Santos in his last bout and Santos is a hard punching, tall, natural, junior middleweight who once handed Antonio Margarito a convincing loss.  With his jab and movement alone I think Foreman can outpoint most of the top 20 in the division.

Miguel Cotto on the other hand has been battered and bruised in three of his last four fights. He may be 29 on paper but in the ring this weekend you might be looking at a 39 year old fighter. In addition he has demonstrated an inability to dominate skilled boxers/movers. He has relied on brute force in the past but at 154 Cotto will not have the power to take out Foreman.

I see this fight being a cat (Cotto) and mouse (Foreman) game in which Cotto, by the later rounds, will slowly transform from the cat to the mouse. He will not be able to deal with any of the tools Foreman brings to the table and barring a lucky knockout he will end up on the losing end of a unanimous decision. Based on the wear and tear he has endured and the heavy scar tissue on his brow I wouldn't be surprised if the fight is stopped in the 11th or 12th round.

The way to bet this fight is 3 Units on Foreman to win at +200 and 1 Unit on Foreman by KO at +750. While Foreman is a very light puncher I truly believe his natural size advantage may prove too much for Cotto in the later rounds. However is see this as a bit of a long shot so I am only recommending 1 Unit as a side bet. Regardless I see this fight as the end of Cotto's career. Hopefully he hangs them up Saturday night and closes the door on a very worthy contribution to the sport. GOOD LUCK!!!

Amir Khan vs. Paulie Malignaggi

May 15, 2010

OUTCOME: Khan by 11th Round TKO                                     

Andy's Pick: Malignaggi By Split Decision

THE BET:
2.0 Units on Malignaggi by Decision at +600

THE PAYOUT:
-2.0 Units

When I saw the money line on this fight it dawned on me how much respect the boxing community has for Amir Khan. But why is this so? His most impressive win was a unanimous decision over durable, but two-dimensional Andriy Kotelnick, which he followed with a first round knockout of B minus fighter, Dimitry Salita. Prior to that he scored a 5th round stoppage over what was at best a shell of the former Mexican superstar, Marco Antonio Barrera. Aside from those three fights, Khan has not faced a single name fighter, and let's not forget his first round knockout loss in 2008 at the hands of Breidis Prescott. Bredis who? Exactly.

On the other side of the ring, Paulie Malignaggi, in his last outing won a decisive unanimous decision over the very rugged and dangerous Juan Diaz, which followed their first match in which Malignaggi was robbed in a unanimous decision loss. Prior to that Malignaggi fought bravely, though in vain, for 11 rounds against a prime Rickey Hatton before his corner threw in the towel (he could have continued).  In another courageous effort in 2006, Paulie battled Miguel Cotto for 12 competitive rounds despite suffering what was essentially a broken face in the early frames.

So what do these two resumes tell us? Number one, Malignaggi has faced the better competition and has a big edge in experience. Aside from Barrera, Khan has not faced a truly legitimate threat in his whole career. Secondly, despite his lack of power, Paulie can take a punch as well as just about anybody in the division and apparently Khan cannot. Lastly, while they are both coming off impressive wins, Malignaggi's domination of Juan Diaz carried far more weight and also demonstrated a noticeable style improvement brought about by Paulie's switch in trainers from Buddy McGirt to Sharif Youdan. 

I see this fight coming down to speed and Malignaggi is clearly the faster man. If he can stick to his jab and use effective movement to avoid Khan's assaults I believe he can eke out a close, and possibly hometown, split decision. The only advantage Khan has is in the power department but Malignaggi has never been knocked out. If Cotto and Hatton couldn't do it I highly doubt Khan can do the job.

The way to bet this fight is 2 Units on Malignaggi by Decision at +600. While Khan showed a suspect chin against Prescott, Malignaggi is one of the lightest punchers in the division so it would take a miracle for him to score the KO. GOOD LUCK!

Cristobal Arreola vs. Tomasz Adamek

April 24, 2010

OUTCOME: Adamek by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Adamek by Decision                                                                                  

THE BET:
3.0 Units on Adamek by Decision at +170

THE PAYOUT:
5.1 Units

The first thing I want you to look at is the photo above. Notice anything peculiar? Well it appears that despite Cris Arreola being listed as 6' 4", Tomasz Adamek is the taller man in this fight. On a side note it even looks like he has the bigger fist. Before I saw them standing next to each other I looked at this as perhaps a pick'em fight. Now I can't see any other outcome besides a unanimous decision win for Adamek.

The heavyweight division has been in desperate need of a savior, and for a while fans and boxing writers alike were mentioning the name Arreola as the most likely candidate. However, after he was summarily pounded into submission by Vitali Klitschko those voices have become silent. Arreola was just another in a long line of heavyweight hopefuls who have been exposed as B+ fighters, and when you look at his record you realize he has beaten nobody. In his last fight against Brian Minto (C+ fighter), during the four rounds it lasted he took way too many clean head shots and, lucky for him, they were from a small, unskilled journeyman. In the fight before that he was decimated by Klitschko, and prior to that he won the shining victory of his career against...(drum role)...Jameel McCline. Woohoo.

Now I'm not going to go as far as saying that a pumped up cruiserweight like Tomasz Adamek is the savior of the heavyweight division but he represents a hell of a lot more talent than Arreola. In his last two fights Adamek has faced two legitimate heavyweights in Jason Estrada (UD win) and Andrew Golota (5th round KO) and has won handily, walking through some big head shots in the process. So if he beat a very big, powerful heavyweight and outclassed a very skilled, nimble heavyweight why will Cris Arreola be such a tough opponent? He wont.

I can't see Adamek losing this fight unless he gets reckless (which he does have a tendency to do). His chin is supremely durable, but to suggest he can walk through Arreola's best shots for twelve rounds is giving him a bit too much credit. As long as he boxes, keeps his distance and avoids toe to toe exchanges he should win this one going away.

The way to bet this fight is 3 Units on Adamek by decision at +170. I can't see any way that he can knock Arreola out and Arreola ain't winning a decision so the only downside here is if Adamek goes down for the count. Based on his near-superhuman chin and Arreola's sloppiness I don't see this happening. GOOD LUCK!!!

Kelly Pavlik vs. Sergio Martinez

April 17, 2010

OUTCOME: Martinez by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Martinez by Decision                                                                                  

THE BET:
10.0 Units on Martinez to win at +150

THE PAYOUT:
15.0 Units

THIS IS MY LOCK OF THE YEAR!!!!

OK sometimes the odds makers just get it wrong. I could have understood if Sergio Martinez was only a -200 favorite against Kelly Pavlik, but an underdog??? I'm confused. Is this a misprint? Is there a glitch in the bookmaking system? OK let the evidence speak for itself:

In October 2008 Pavlik was unconditionally exposed by a 43 year old Bernard Hopkins. 'Exposed' is an understatement. I truly believe Hopkins won every single second of that fight and never once was in the remotest hint of danger.  Yes B-Hop is a legend, and yes he has been known to humble even the most world class of fighters. But the way he exposed his 17 year junior, 'pound for pound' opponent was embarrassing.  Even a washed up Roy Jones Jr. fared better than Pavlik...much better. OK, but naysayers will tell you that Pavlik couldn't handle the extra weight.  Give me a break. Hopkins fought his entire career at 160 and Pavlik is probably more of a natural 168 pounder than Hopkins ever was. But enough about Hopkins.

How about Jermain Taylor you ask? Well in my opinion, the first fight with Taylor was Pavlik's only impressive performance in his career (yes I think Edison Miranda is an over hyped tomato can). However, the same way Pavlik was exposed by B-Hop as a one-dimensional fighter, Taylor was exposed by Pavlik as a guy who can't take the heat down the stretch. By showing grit and surviving an early barrage, Pavlik was able to outlast Taylor and put him away. Taylor hasn't been the same since.

Despite his success against Taylor, It is my opinion that Pavlik was not only exposed, but ruined by Hopkins (he's called the 'Executioner' for a reason). He is now a shell-shocked fighter and after his last two 'exhibition' fights is in no position to face a skilled veteran like Martinez.  Speaking of which, let's take a quick look at Martinez.

It's been ten years since a 25 year old, inexperienced, Argentinian ran into the teeth of the Tijuana Tornado, Antonio Margarito. Since being stopped in that fight, Martinez has won 30 straight bouts. Oh what about Paul Williams and Kermit Cintron you ask? I won't even dignify those outcomes with acknowledgment. To say Martinez was robbed in these meetings is a vast understatement. Even John Dillinger had more dignity than those judges.

Let's look at the Paul Williams fight. Williams is possibly the most gifted and dangerous fighter in boxing today. He is a deadly mix speed, high-work rate, power, stamina and size. The only thing he lacks is defense, which he makes up for with a fearsome beard. Anyone who can beat Williams can unquestionably beat Pavlik. It's simple math. Martinez beat Williams (yes he did and you know it) and Pavlik isn't even half the fighter Williams is.  Martinez was born to expose one-dimensional fighters. His lateral movement alone will befuddle Pavlik, who couldn't even handle Hopkin's 43 year-old, rickety legs. Pavlik does have a three inch height advantage but his reach, which is 7 inches shorter than William, is actually one inch shorter than Martinez's. Both are comfortable at 160 so size will not be a factor.

It's arguable that Martinez might be, pound for pound right behind Mayweather, Pacquiao and Mosley. He might not be the prettiest looking fighter but he's close to the best.  I believe with his speed and the vast array of tools in his possession, he will out-class Pavlik in a one-sided decision and perhaps even score a late round TKO (it's possible that Pavlik Sr. will have seen enough by around the 11th frame). 

The way to bet this fight is simple. Throw the farm on Martinez to win at +150. While I would be tempted to bet the Decision only prop, I worry that Martinez might score the late TKO. With the odds being in your favor there is no need to take that risk. GOOD LUCK!!

Joshua Clottey vs. Miguel Cotto

June 13, 2009

OUTCOME: Cotto by Split Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Clottey by Decision                                                                                  

THE BET:
2.0 Units on Clottey to win at +275
0.5 Units on Clottey by Decision at +900

THE PAYOUT:
-2.5 Units

I'm not sure why Cotto took this dangerous fight but I take my hat off to his bravery. That being said I believe he is in for quite a rough evening.

The pre-Margarito Cotto probably would have handled Clottey in a lopsided decision but this Cotto is shop-worn. That old confidence has been shaken badly, and thats not a good sign for someone who is getting in the ring with one of the toughest, most underrated fighters in the division. The biggest problem I see for Cotto here is that he probably cant hurt the rugged African. In past fights when he was unable to assert his power he has run into trouble. In this fight he will learn early on that Clottey can take his best shot. Once this dawns on him he will resort to movement. This worked against Mosley (by the slimmest of margins) but will it work against a hungry Clottey? It should be very interesting to watch but I believe that the foot race will favor Clottey. I expect the African to get outworked early but come on strong late and even possibly score a KO against the Puerto Rican superstar. The most likely scenario seems to be a close decision win for Clottey.

The way to bet this fight is 2.0 units on Clottey to win at +275 and 0.5 units on a Decision win at +900. Despite the long odds on a decision I think the possibility of a KO is too high to lay all the money there. Good luck!!

Manny Pacquiao vs. Ricky Hatton

May 2, 2009

OUTCOME: Pacquiao by KO

ANDY'S PICK: Hatton by TKO

THE BET:
3 Units on Hatton to win at +215

THE PAYOUT:
-3.0 Units

To be perfectly honest I thought at first this fight was a mismatch, but in favor of Pacquiao not Hatton. After much reflection I've realized that I, like so many other journalists and odds makers was brainwashed by the Pac Man's destruction of Oscar De La Hoya. I think we all can agree in hindsight that the Golden boy was not all too golden that night. Aside from being totally drained from making weight, he was clearly many years past his prime. So if not the De La Hoya fight, then what is the defining performance of Pacquiao's career?  Beating a washed up Morales? Pummeling an even more washed up Barrera? Perhaps  his two losses (ahem...i means wins) against a 125lb Juan Manuel Marquez? You see when you really look at the record, Manny hasn't accomplished anything all too grand. Now he is truly stepping up to face a real, prime junior welterweight for the first time in his career. But this isn't some 2nd tier 140 pounder. Rather Pacquiao will be fighting the most ferocious 140 pounder in the game tomorrow night. If the Pac Man was hurt by 125 pound Marquez, what will happen when he tastes Hatton's best left hook? Let's remember, Hatton has never had trouble at 140 and that includes Kostya Tszyu. The only times he was even tested was by Collazo and Mayweather, both at 147. In fact, if it weren't for the Mayweather KO, we probably all would be thinking Hatton should be the favorite in this match.

This is the way I see the fight playing out. Hatton will start very aggressively in an attempt to impose his will and bully the smaller man. This tactic worked against Mayweather and I have no doubt it will work against Pacquiao. The middle rounds will decide the outcome of the fight. I expect that Hatton will lose some of these rounds based purely on better connect percentages from Pacquiao. However, Hatton's punches will be hurting Manny more and by the late rounds, while he may actually be leading on the score cards, Pacquiao will be fading. I expect sometime near the end of the fight, a final Hatton barrage will leave Pacquiao helpless against the ropes and the ref will stop the action.

The way to bet this fight is 3 units on Hatton to win at +215. While a knockout prop could be an interesting side bet, there is not enough value there at +300. Good luck!

Jermain Taylor vs. Carl Froch

April 25, 2009

OUTCOME: Froch by 12th Round KO

ANDY'S PICK: Taylor by Decision

THE BET:
5 Units on Taylor by Dec. at +150

THE PAYOUT:
-5 Units

This matchup simply comes down to resumes. Carl Froch has fought nobody and Jermain Taylor has fought everybody.

In his last fight with Jeff Lacy, Taylor appeared to be in championship form and I expect him to be as hungry for this win as any in his career. While Froch has demonstrated impressive power against second tier opponents, Taylor has gone the distance twice with Bernard Hopkins and once with Kelly Pavlik. I think Taylor will dominate this bout with his jab, keeping Froch's assaults at bay and landing strong right hands when he finds the range.  While I don't rule out a Taylor stoppage, Froch has an excellent chin and Taylor doesn't even knock out middleweights. In the end, Jermain Taylor will score an easy unanimous decision on superior boxing skills and experience.

The way to bet this fight is 5 units on Taylor by decision at +150. Froch has never been hurt and he's a big super middleweight.  On top of that, Taylor hasn't scored a knockout in over four years. As far as Taylor tasting the canvas, Froch doesn't have one punch knockout power, and since I don't expect him to be able to find Taylor very often I don't think he'll have the opportunity to wear him down with accumulation. Good luck!

Paul Williams vs. Winky Wright

April 11, 2009

OUTCOME: Williams by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Williams by Decision

THE BET:
7 Units on Williams by Dec. at -140

THE PAYOUT:
5.0 Units

Well you know Paul Williams is being dodged when he has to fight Winky Wright. That being said I really don't think Winky stands a chance in this fight. As much as I love the guy, almost two years of inactivity, a ten-inch reach disadvantage and a terrible style matchup all lead me to believe that Winky will walk away with a UD loss.

While Winky is technically the "bigger" man, his natural weight advantage will be meaningless against the height and reach of Paul Williams. While it will most likely allow him to survive twelve rounds, it will only serve to make him the slower man. The way I see this fight going is simple. Winky's style will work against him from rounds one through twelve. Williams is an output fighter. He never stops throwing punches. Winky likes to ball up into a defensive shell while his opponent attacks and then take his turn peppering them with combinations. Against Williams this will backfire. There won't be any window for Winky to have the clear for an attack. He will constantly be under a barrage of 82 inch long shots and will have no room to breathe. In the end he will have lost nearly every round and look ripe for retirement.

The way to bet this fight is 7 units on Williams by Decision at -140.  Winky hasn't scored a knockout in seven years and with William's sturdy beard that sure isn't going to change tonight.  While there is the very slim chance that Winky can somehow figure out Williams and use his veteran skills to outsmart him, this outcome is not even worth a hedge. If anything there is a better chance the ref will put Winky out of his misery in the late rounds but based on Winky's career stats, that is equally dubious. Good luck!

Chris Arreola vs. Jameel McCline

April 11, 2009

OUTCOME: Arreola by KO

ANDY'S PICK: McCline by TKO

THE BET:
1.5 Units on McCline straight at +300

THE PAYOUT:
-1.5 Units

This fight is simple. McCline starts fast and Arreola starts slow.  Add to that the fact that Arreola weighed in at an appalling 255 and we have all the ingredients for an upset.  Also, McCline knows this is do or die for him. He has come so close in the past and I expect him to lay it all on the line tonight. He will come out fast and furiously and the pudgy Arreola may be overwhelmed early. If he was in serious trouble against Travis Walker in his last fight, how will he fare against a raging 6'6" 271 pound McCline?

The way I see this fight going is McCline coming out and looking for the early knockout. Unless Arreola returns similar firepower he could be in trouble. The only problem is if McCline doesn't take Arreola out in the first three or four rounds he will lose the upper hand and most likely succumb to a decision loss. However, we have to call Arreola's stamina into question. Can he go the full twelve rounds carrying around that gut? Either way this will be a very interesting bout and certainly worth wagering a small bet on a McCline upset.

The way to bet this fight is 1.5 units on McCline straight at +300. The reason I don't bet the knockout is the premium is so tiny at +375. Also it's very conceivable that McCline could eke out a close decision. Good luck!

Timothy Bradley vs. Kendall Holt

April 4, 2009

OUTCOME: Bradley by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Bradley by Decision

THE BET:
3 Units on Bradley by Dec. at +200

THE PAYOUT:
6.0 Units

Well if physiques could win fights then Timothy Bradley has already put this one in the books. If he loses, however, he surely will have offers for some underwear ads. All joking aside this is a very intriguing matchup that could be yet another highly entertaining bout of 2009.  Both men are young, skilled boxers who have something to prove. While Bradley's resume is the more impressive with a win against Junior Witter, Holt recently looked good against the highly skilled Demetrius Hopkins,and of course battled bravely to an impressive knockout in his most recent fight with Ricardo Torres.  However, Bradley is one of the best pure boxers in the game right now and to win this fight, Holt is going to have to use his height/reach advantage and keep the fight at a distance.  Holt has a tendency to mix it up and if he is unable to keep his composure and fight tall, then Bradley will no doubt outbox him.

I see the early rounds of this fight being a feeling out process with both men having their moments but neither taking the upper hand. In the middle rounds I expect Bradley to start getting closer to Holt and do some damage on the inside. Bradley's superior conditioning will begin to show in the later rounds as he begins to outclass Holt and land combinations to the head and body. At the end I expect Bradley to walk away with a close decision win.

The way to bet this fight is 3 units on Bradley by decision at +200.  Bradley has minimal power and being the smaller man I find it unlikely that he will test Holt's chin. While Holt was floored in the Torres fight he was able to come back and take the knockout. His toughness should get him through this one without any major problems. I think the risk here is a big Holt right hand finding its way to Bradley's chin, but based on Bradley's excellent defense I don't see this happening. Good luck!

Roy Jones Jr. vs. Omar Sheika

March 21, 2009

OUTCOME: Jones by TKO

ANDY'S PICK: Jones by Decision

THE BET:
3.0 Units on Jones by Decision at +150

THE PAYOUT:
-3.0 Units

Despite the above prediction I implore you Mr. Jones to please stop fighting and preserve your legacy before something unfortunate happens.

Ok that said here's how I feel about the fight.

Omar Sheika has not fought in a year and a half since beating the sad excuse for a tomato can, Tiwon Taylor. In the past four years he has only fought twice. He has lost six of his last ten fights and hasn't beaten a worthy foes since his majority decision over Glen Johnson nearly ten years ago. Jones on the other hand fought twelve grueling rounds back in November with arguably the best fighter in the world (Calzaghe) and before that, in January he gave Felix Trinidad (yes a faded, overweight Felix Trinidad, but nevertheless, Felix Trinidad) a methodical twelve round beating.

On paper it appears that Omar Sheika is coming out of retirement to be the sacrificial lamb for yet another inadvisable comeback attempt by Roy Jones.  However, because of his work rate and ring toughness, he does have a puncher's chance. However I believe that Jones will be the quicker, craftier man and, despite a far lower work rate, will keep Sheika at bay, handing him a rather dull twelve round drubbing. Despite Sheika being a natural super middleweight I don't believe the size differential will be a significant factor and Jones' pitter patter punching should not prove lethal to the iron chinned Sheika. As for the possibility of Jones getting knocked out, well if Calzaghe couldn't do it it seems rather unlikely that Sheika will do the trick.

The bet here is a simple one. Three units on Jones by boring decision at +150. Unless Sheika is doing this solely for one last paycheck it seems very unlikely that he'll be dropped, let alone knocked out. Good luck!

Marco Antonio Barrera vs. Amir Khan

 

March 14, 2009

OUTCOME: Khan by TKO

ANDY'S PICK: Barrera by TKO

THE BET:
2.0 Units on Barrera by TKO at +250

THE PAYOUT:
-2.0 Units

Barrera is a 2-1 underdog against Amir Khan??? What's wrong with this picture?

A legend who has fought only the pound for pound best over the last five years is facing the boxing equivalent of a child, who in turn has hardly fought anyone in the top 100 let alone the top 10. To makes matters even more bizarre, the only time Khan faced anyone worth his weight in salt (Breidis Prescott) he was practically knocked out by the first punch of the fight.

Well apparently the odds makers know something I don't. Yes Barrera is moving up in weight and yes he is the far short man and yes he is 13 years Khan's senior. But come on! In his last meaningful fight, Barrera fought, for the most part, competitively with Manny Pacquiao for twelve rounds. This is the legendary Marco Antonio Barrera we are talking about here. Even if he is well past his prime, a washed up Barrera could beat Khan 9 out of 10 times in my humble opinion.

The way I see this fight going in the early rounds is Khan using his jab feverishly to keep the smaller Barrera at bay. This tactic will work for a while but then Barrera will start finding his way to the inside in the middle rounds at which point he will begin punishing Khan's rib cage. By the later rounds, if Khan is still standing, I expect Barrera to be roughing him up badly. It's only a matter of time before the inexperienced Khan is laid to rest by the Mexican legend.

The way to bet this fight is 2 units on Barrera by KO at +250. While it's conceivable that Barrera can win a decision, the near even odds don't quite compensate you for the risk. Good luck!

Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Juan Diaz

February 28, 2009

OUTCOME: Marquez by 9th RD. TKO

ANDY'S PICK: Marquez by Decision

THE BET:
4.0 Units on Marquez by Dec. at +130

THE PAYOUT:
-4 Units

Sorry, wasn't able to post analysis for this match.

Vic Darchinyan vs. Jorge Arce

February 07, 2009

OUTCOME: Darchinyan by TKO

ANDY'S PICK: Arce by TKO

THE BET:
1.5 Units on Arce by KO at +450

THE PAYOUT:
-1.5 Units

I love this recession. Another phenomenal fight fans' feast between two brawling warriors and its NOT on PPV!

One thing I can almost guarantee is that only one man will be left standing at the end of this bout, and based on both fighters' chins it will not be an easy route to the canvas for either.  In his last fight, Darchinyan won an impressive stoppage over Christian Mijares, who less than two years ago won an easy unanimous decision over Jorge Arce. Many will point to this common opponent and assume that Darchinyan is going to steamroll Arce. However styles make fights and I believe the high punch volume and relentless brawling style of Arce will give the Armenian as much as he can handle. While Darchinyan never had to worry about Mijares' power, against Arce he will not have the luxury of being able to move forward with impunity. 

I expect the early rounds to be fought furiously as both men try to gain each other's respect. The middle rounds could turn more tactical as Darchinyan uses a bit more caution against the rugged Mexican.  Aside from a couple misteps in his teens, Arce has never been badly hurt in a fight and if he can make it into the later rounds he will gain the upper hand. I expect Arce to wear Darchinyan down in these later rounds and eventually start bullying the bully. At this point it is only a matter of time before Darchinyan cannot continue. Remember, Nonito Donaire, who is not known as a heavy puncher, knocked Vic out cold. Arce punches harder and more often. If he can get to Darchinyan's chin as often I suspect he will, this could turn out to be the second KO loss for the Armenian Raging Bull.

The way to bet this fight is 1.5 units on Arce by stoppage at +450. While this is a risky bet, I feel confident that Arce's chin will hold up and if it does, Darchinyan will wither under the pressure. Good luck!!

Antonio Margarito vs. Shane Mosley

 
January 24, 2009

OUTCOME: Mosley by TKO

ANDY'S PICK: Mosley by Decision

THE BET:
2 Units on Mosley by Dec. at +550
2 Units on Margarito by Decision at +110 (HEDGE)

THE PAYOUT:
-4.0 Units

Well you know you're in a recession when a fight like this is on free TV.

Coming off his devastating win over Miguel Cotto, the Tijuana Tornado is not wasting anytime in taking on the next best fighter in the division. It seems that the Margarito people feel that by fighting Shane Mosley they can have a marquee name and an easy win. However, despite his 37 years, Mosley is still as dangerous as ever and contrary to what the judges saw, I had him beating Cotto by two points. Interestingly, had Cotto not succumbed to the Margarito barrage in the 11th round, he most likely would have won that fight by a similar margin. Thats why this fight is so intriguing.

Let's first look at the vital statistics.

Despite being two inches taller than Mosley, Margarito has a one inch reach disadvantage over the freakishly long 74" that Sugar Shane brings to the table.  What's important to note here is that Cotto's reach is 67", a full seven inches shorter than Mosley's. This was one of the main reasons why Miguel was unable to keep Margarito at bay long enough to survive twelve rounds. In the pounds department, both men are fighting at their ideal weight although the advantage here goes to Mosley, who at welterweight is nearly unstoppable.

Here's how I expect the fight to play out:

Mosley will look great in the early rounds, keeping Margarito at distance with his long jab and pot shotting him when he comes in close. If Mosley is smart, which I believe is, he will avoid excessive in-fighting as this is where Margarito feasts. However Mosley is no chump when it comes to mixing it up on the inside and I expect him to give just as good as he takes in these exchanges. As they enter the middle rounds I expect the tide to shift slightly in Margarito's favor as the 37 year old legs of Mosley cannot quite keep pace with the relentless onslaught of the Mexican. However, despite his years, Mosley has shown tremendous stamina in recent fights, and I don't expect him to run out of gas entirely. Regardless, Mosley will start taking some punishment in these rounds and will have to settle for a more defensive stance to avoid getting roughed up excessively. While the middle rounds will be mixed, slightly favoring Margarito, I expect the true warrior in Mosley to come out in the later frames.  While Cotto began to run away at this point in his fight with the Mexican, I expect Mosley, with his far superior chin, to stand and trade with Margarito. This will make for some crowd pleasing moments and most likely some additional points on the cards for Sugar Shane. In the end I expect both of these iron-chinned men to still be standing with Mosley edging the Mexican by the slimmest of margins. 

The formula is simple: Mosley has a longer reach and a better chin than Cotto. Had Cotto had either of these attributes he most likely would have won a close decision in his fight with Margarito.

The way to bet this fight is 2 units on Mosley by Decision at +550 with a hedge of 2 units on a Margarito decision at +110. Neither of these men have ever been knocked out and I don't expect that to change tonight. Good luck!!

Nikolai Valuev vs. Evander Holyfield

December 20, 2008

OUTCOME: Valuev by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Valuev by Decision

THE BET:
4 Units on Valuev by Dec. at +140
0.33 Units on Holyfield by Decision at +1200 (HEDGE)

THE PAYOUT:
5.3 Units

In the most elaborate of heavyweight freakshows, Apollo Creed will be taking on Ivan Drago (let's just make believe). However despite Drago's huge size advantage, Creed brings veteran skills and the heart of a lion. In a odd way, Drago may be just what the doctor ordered for Creed; slow, lumbering and easy to hit. However at 46, Apollo will not be able to avoid or land enough shots to bring down the Russian giant. What he will do in my opinion is give a valiant twelve round effort and end up on the losing side of a unanimous decision.

The way to bet this fight is 4 units on Drago by decision with a tiny hedge on a Creed decision. While Drago is huge, his power is puny (his last four fights have gone the distance against questionable opposition). Apollo can certainly take a punch and I expect him to go the distance. While it certainly seems unlikely, a Creed decision victory is not out of the question. Good luck!!

Kendall Holt vs. Demetrius Hopkins

December 13, 2008

OUTCOME: Holt by Split Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Hopkins by Decision

THE BET:
2 Units on Hopkins by Dec. at +300
1 Unit on Hopkins to Win at +200

THE PAYOUT:
-3.0 Units

Sometimes I just don't understand where the odds-makers come up with this stuff, but apparently Demetrius Hopkins, the undefeated and supremely talented cousin of the great Bernard Hopkins is a 2 to 1 underdog to take the flawed and twice KO'd fighter from Patterson, NJ. In my humble opinion this is at best a pick-em fight and more likely a match in which Hopkins should be a light favorite.

The resumes here tell the story quite well. While in his last three fights Hopkins won an impressive shutout over Steve Forbes and easily got by two journeyman foes, Holt barely escaped with a decision win over Ben Tackie, was knocked out cold by Ricardo Torres and was just about to be knocked out again when Torres ran right into the luckiest Hail Mary Holt has ever unleashed.

I believe this will be a hard fought but relatively easy win for Hopkins. He will keep Holt at bay with his superior jab and also have an edge on the inside. From what I've seen, Hopkins has a very sturdy beard so unless Holt lands another lottery punch, I don't see this fight ending with a Holt stoppage.

The bet here is 2 units on Hopkins by decision at +300 and 1 unit by straight win at +200. While I feel confident this fight will go the full 12, I would protect my wager with the hedge on Hopkins straight. Good luck!!

Manny Pacquiao vs. Oscar De La Hoya

December 06, 2008

OUTCOME: Pacquiao by TKO (WOW!)

ANDY'S PICK: De La Hoya by 10th round KO

THE BET:
3 Units on De La Hoya by KO at +150
1 Unit on Pacquiao by Decision at +300 (hedge)

THE PAYOUT:
-4.5 Units

Ok, so for all those fans out there (myself included) who have had doubts about Oscar's chances against Pac-Man, here is the math that should put those questions to rest:

De La Hoya walks around at 165. Manny walks around at 135.
De La Hoya has a four inch height advantage and a six inch reach advantage.
The last time Oscar fought at 147 was his 2001 domination of Arturo Gatti.  That same year Pacquiao was fighting at the super bantam weight of 121.
Two years earlier in 1999, Pacquiao was knocked out in the 3rd round by 112-pound, household name, Medgoen Singsurat.
Two years ago Oscar executed a six round destruction of 154-pound Ricardo Mayorga, who has as good a chin as anyone within three weight classes.

I could go on forever but I think you get the point. If Mayweather barely escaped with a decision against Oscar then how can the far less defensive-minded Pacquiao survive? He can't.

Don't get me wrong. I love Pacquiao and truly believe he is the best pound for pound fighter in the world today. I just don't believe in miracles.

Here's how I expect the fight to play out:

The first round will be very telling and I suspect both fighters will come out blasting. It will end up being Pacquiao's round on pure work rate and speed. However as the early rounds wear on I expect Oscar to begin imposing his will on the smaller man.  Pacquiao's defense is his weakest link and he will be punished in the center of the ring and against the ropes.  While I expect him to outland Oscar in these rounds, the more telling blows will be received on Pac-Man's chin and body. The middle rounds will begin to foretell Manny's demise as Oscar's jab and body work will have weakened him considerably by this point.  The more fatigued and bruised that Pacquiao gets, the more suceptible he will be to one-two combos and the feared De La Hoya left hook. I expect that the Pac-Man will go down valiantly in the late rounds from a De La Hoya barrage against the ropes.

The way to bet this fight is 3 units on De La Hoya by KO at +150 and 1 unit on Pacquiao by decision at +300. While I expect Oscar to close the show, if somehow Pacquiao survives the 12 rounds I can foresee a close decision perhaps tipping in his favor. THE HEDGE HERE IS A MUST! Remember, despite what Freddie Roach says, it is impossible for Pacquiao to knockout the iron-chinned De La Hoya, so don't even think about that option. Good Luck!

Ricky Hatton vs. Paul Malignaggi

November 22, 2008

OUTCOME: Hatton by 11th Rd. TKO

ANDY'S PICK: Malignaggi by Split Decision

THE BET:
1 Unit on Malignaggi by decision at +250

THE PAYOUT:
-1 Units

A year ago I doubt that Paulie Malignaggi would have dreamed that he'd be meeting Ricky Hatton tonight in Las Vegas, but after Mayweather cut the Hitman down like an old English pine, Mr. Hatton doesn't have much choice but take a fight such as this one. The problem from a business perspective  is that he has chosen a local New York favorite but a national non-entity. Even worse is that he is facing a carbon copy of Luis Collazo, except with a better jab. Hatton doesn't fare well against crafty defensive minded boxers and, with a 5" inch reach advantage, Malignaggi poses a very real threat. Furthermore, after his courageous battle with Miguel Cotto I don't think Malignaggi will be at significant risk of getting knocked out against the only slightly above-average power of Hatton.

I see this fight playing out as follows. Hatton will try to impose his will early with swarming assaults. If Malignaggi is able to survive this tactic for the first two rounds I see him taking control of the middle frames with his jab and stick and move boxing skills. The late rounds will prove toughest for Malignaggi as Hatton's relentless attack will have created fatigue in the New Yorker's legs. Hatton may win the last few rounds on sheer will, but if Malignaggi has put enough rounds in the tank by then he should come away with a close decision.

The bet here is 1 unit on Malignaggi by decision at +250. While this is a risky bet, I believe you are getting an approximate 75% premium to the actual odds. Good luck!!

Jermain Taylor vs. Jeff Lacy

November 15, 2008

OUTCOME: Taylor by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Taylor by Decision

THE BET:
5 Units on Taylor by Decision at +110

THE PAYOUT:
5.5 Units

This fight is easy money.

Lacy has an iron chin and terrible boxing skills. Jermain has a very durable chin and terrific boxing skills. Lacy has barely gotten by on his last three decisions against mediocre competition. Taylor, despite losing twice to Kelly Pavlik, outboxed Bernard Hopkins twice.

I expect Taylor to use his jab effectively and neutralize Lacy's attack. Jermain who has been an easy target for right hands in the past is fighting a guy who only has a left hook. Lacy can't touch Jermain with his biggest weapon, especially since he won't be able to get near him.

I don't see Taylor taking many risks in this fight so I don't even expect him to go for the knockout. I expect a rather boring and lopsided 12-round decision. The fact that these guys were teammates in the Olympics would further strengthen my thesis that this will be a glorified sparring match.

The way to bet this fight is simple. Taylor by decision at +110. It's a gift that you're getting better than even odds on what I believe is a foregone conclusion. Good Luck!!

Joe Calzaghe vs. Roy Jones. Jr.

November 8, 2008

OUTCOME: Calzaghe by Unanimous Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Calzaghe by Knockout

THE BET:
2 Units on Calzaghe by KO at +300
2 Units on Calzaghe by Decision at +100 (OPTIONAL HEDGE)

THE PAYOUT:
0 Units

Nobody loves Roy Jones Jr. more than this writer.

I watched every single right hand, every slip, every seamless counter. I marveled at this ring artist as he dismantled grown men as if they were so many tin soldiers.

He was the greatest I saw in my lifetime and perhaps the greatest of all time. I will remember him for his classic destruction of James Toney, his one-round annihilation of Montel Griffin and his heroic capture of the heavyweight crown against John Ruiz.

Part of me wants to see the old Roy tomorrow night. But another part just wants to remember him for what he was. That part knows that the old Roy is long gone.

Without getting into details, Joe Calzaghe will just be too much for this old horse. We all know it to be true. Its just so hard to say goodbye to our heroes.

Goodbye Roy. I'll miss you. We'll all miss what you gave us for so many good years.

Kelly Pavlik vs. Bernard Hopkins

October 18, 2008

OUTCOME: Hopkins by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Hopkins by Decision

THE BET:
1 Unit on Hopkins by decision at +570

THE PAYOUT:
5.7 Units

Let me make this clear. I don't think Hopkins will definitely win this fight but at +570  I think you're getting a 200% value.

Pavlik is 26 and Hopkins is 43. That right there would ordinarily be enough for this fight to not even make it past the sanctioning bodies. But Hopkins is no ordinary 43 year old.  Even in his last fight he lost a very controversial decision to arguably the best pound for pound fighter in the world in Joe Calzaghe. I don't believe age will play as big a role in this bout as people think. While Hopkins did tire in the back half of the Calzaghe fight, he was never in any danger and didn't take a clean shot the whole night. That ability to avoid getting hit squarely will be the key to victory for Hopkins. Despite Pavlik's fearsome power and work rate I find it almost impossible to believe that he can stop Hopkins. As a matter of fact I think there is almost no chance whatsoever. If Jermain Taylor could go the distance with Pavlik then Hopkins will have no trouble.

How will Hopkins win this fight?  Pure, unadulterated,  jail-house craftiness.  Pavlik has never been in the ring with a veteran master on the level of Hopkins. The shots he is used to landing will be slipped or blocked and he will be hit by punches he's never been hit by. He will eventually get frustrated, get careless and take some very big shots to the head. With his strong chin I don't believe Hopkins will put him down but after 12 rounds Pavlik will be the worse for wear.

Take Hopkins by decision at +570 in a swan song for the ages. Good luck!!!

Vitali Klitschko vs. Samuel Peter

October 11, 2008

OUTCOME: Klitschko by Knockout

ANDY'S PICK: Klitschko by Knockout

THE BET:
4 Units on Klitschko by KO at +130

THE PAYOUT:
5.2 Units

I don't care if Vitali took TWENTY four years off.

He will crush Peter tomorrow night.

I still believe that Vitali  was the best heavyweight of the post-Tyson era and he arguably has never lost a fight. With only one contest going the distance (Timo Hoffman)  there is almost no chance that Peter will last the full twelve. Aside from almost being knocked out by Jameel McCline, Peter's height and reach disadvantage will prove fatal. With his far superior boxing skills, Vitali will pick Peter apart at will until he dispatches him somewhere in the later rounds.

This is a mismatch and I look forward to Peter being exposed as a one-punch wonder. I also am very happy to see Vitali out of politics and back where he always belonged.

Joan Guzman vs. Nate Campbell

September 13, 2008

OUTCOME: POSTPONED

ANDY'S PICK: Guzman by Decision

THE BET:
5 Units on Guzman by Decision at +110

THE PAYOUT:
5.5 Units

This one looks easy on paper. Campbell, who is a good, but not great fighter, got a little lucky in his last match. Clearly bothered by a severe eye injury, it just wasn't meant to be for Juan Diaz that night.  Now Campbell is entering the ring against an undefeated boxing wizard whose recent resume blows that of the Florida native away. The clincher in this one is that Guzman has not had a knockout in nearly five years, and that was at super bantamweight. Seeing that Campbell has a very sturdy chin, its almost inconceivable that this match will end any other way than Guzman by unanimous decision.

The way to bet this fight is Guzman by decision at +110. Campbell should enjoy his fifteen minutes of fame because tomorrow night his career will enter its overdue twilight. Good luck!

Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Joel Cassamayor

September 13, 2008

OUTCOME: Marquez by 11th round TKO (ouch)

ANDY'S PICK: Marquez by Decision

THE BET:
6.5 Units on Marquez by Decision at -130

THE PAYOUT:
0 Units

In what should be the highlight of quite an exciting night of boxing, two world class veterans will battle in what should be Cassamayor's last fight as a top contender. Marquez is just to damn good and Cassamayor is just too far past his prime. In his last fight, Marquez, in my opinion, outboxed Manny Pacquiao, widely considered pound for pound, the best fighter in the world. In Cassamayor's last bout he was clearly about to be outpointed by Michael Katsidis when the Australian got sloppy and walked right into a huge left hook.  We all saw how Juan Diaz outclassed Katsidis so what chance does the Cuban have against arguably the best pound for pound fighter in the sport? The answer is none. I expect Marquez to shine tomorrow night and easily handle a washed up Cassamayor, whose last truly impressive win was nearly five years ago.

The way to bet this fight is Marquez by decision at -130. I'll give Cassamayor's chin the benefit of the doubt seeing that he's never been knocked out and that Marquez is not a huge puncher. Good luck!

Juan Diaz vs. Michael Katsidis

September 6, 2008

OUTCOME: Diaz by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Diaz by Knockout

THE BET:
4 Units on Diaz by KO at +130

THE PAYOUT:
0 Units

In what should be a very entertaining bout, two fighters are coming off the first defeats in their respective careers.  While I will not underestimate Katsidis' hunger in this fight, I believe Diaz is the far more skilled of the two. The interesting aspect of this fight is the fact that both fighters love to press the action with volume punches. Therefore fans might be treated to a potentially furious toe to toe battle for at least a few rounds before Diaz begins to gain the upper hand.  Diaz throws the straighter punches and will counter Katsidis very effectively, slowly beating him to a pulp. The Australian warrior demonstrated in the Cassamayor fight that his heart can get the better of him and I expect this fight to be no different.  After battling Diaz competitively for five or six rounds, the relentless head and body assault of the Mexican will prove to be too much. I expect the ref to halt the carnage before the 11th.

The bet here is Diaz by KO at +130. Katsidis cannot stop Diaz so the only risk I see is that Katsidis somehow toughs it out for the full 12 rounds. I don't expect he can. Good luck!

Nikolai Valuev vs. John Ruiz

August 30, 2008

OUTCOME: Valuev by Split Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Ruiz by Decision

THE BET:
2 Units on Ruiz by Decision at +350

THE PAYOUT:
0 Units

There are two things that baffle me in regards to this fight. First, why is John Ruiz still boxing, and for that matter why is he even allowed to bore fight fans to death in a sanctioned for-profit event? My second question is why on Earth is there actually an audience big enough to validate this horrid excuse for a heavyweight title fight? Well I guess the answer to both questions is that heavyweight boxing is for all intents and purposes as extinct as Triceratops. However, I do believe there to be a fine opportunity to make good money on this mess of a boxing match.

Since their first meeting almost three years ago, both fighters have had close decision losses against Ruslan Chagaev and both have earned easy victories over Jameel McCline. However, Valuev has been more active and was impressive in his lopsided decision win over Serguei Lyakhovich in February. Since they are both the same age and they pretty much fought to a draw in their first meeting the only thing separating the two is activity. I for one do not believe this will have any bearing on the fight so one must ask his or herself, why is John Ruiz such a big underdog? The answer is simple. Aside from the clear hometown judging advantage, Valuev is nearly a foot taller and no matter what happened in the first fight people just assume that the giant will prevail in the rematch. As a result, we more savvy handicappers realize that this +350 line is a huge gift. Let's face it, Ruiz probably won the first fight and neither fighter is any different now, three years later. Its a pick'em fight and I expect Ruiz to have learned from his past mistakes and box the goliath more effectively, winning in a potentially unanimous decision. As for the Quiet Man's chances of knocking out the Russian, they are nil.

The way to bet this fight is simple. Two units on Ruiz by DECISION at +350. While you are only getting another +75 premium on the decision prop compared to the straight bet, I still think its worth it since Valuev has a better chance of becoming a thoroughbred jockey than going down against the soft punching Puerto Rican. GOOD LUCK!

Zab Judah vs. Joshua Clottey

August 02, 2008

OUTCOME: Clottey by Decision

ANDY'S PICK: Judah by Decision at +400

THE BET:
2.0 Units on Judah by Decision at +400

THE PAYOUT:
0 Units

Sometimes I think people just forget exactly how good Zab Judah really is. When I saw the odds makers put him at +400 to beat Clottey by decision I had to double take. With the clear understanding that Judah cannot knock out the ultra rugged Clottey (if Margarito couldn't then no one can) this basically means, in the eyes of the bookies, that Judah is going to lose.

So all a guy has to do is drop two hard fought battles against the #1 (Mayweather) and #2 (Cotto) pound for pound fighters in the world and he's suddenly a has been?

Well I beg to differ and I think come Saturday night Judah is going to surprise us against the skilled, but relatively two dimensional, Clottey.  Important to note, Clottey has been most impressive in a unanimous loss (to Margarito), and like Shamone Alvarez who gave Clottey trouble, Judah is a southpaw. Also, Clottey has been prone to hand problems and I wouldn't be surprised to see that play a factor Saturday night.

While Clottey brings a poor man's Margarito offense he is very prone to being hit and lacks the speed and power of Judah.  He simply does everything pretty well but nothing great. Judah on the other hand has supreme hand speed and power and exhibits tremendous footwork.  He even showed his chin against Mayweather and Cotto. What Judah lacks is late round stamina and most importantly, consistency.  However, I believe two things. One is that Judah realizes that his career is on the line and therefore  has most likely trained his ass off for this fight. Secondly, he knows he can't knock Clottey out so he will employ his boxing skills, conserve his energy and pound out a close, but unanimous decision against the African.

The bet here is Judah by decision at +400. He can't knock Clottey out and he wont try. Good luck!

Miguel Cotto vs. Antonio Margarito

July 26, 2008

OUTCOME: Margarito by KO

ANDY'S PICK: Margarito by KO

THE BET:
3.0 Units on Margarito by KO at +320

THE PAYOUT:
9.6 Units

Aside from being potential candidate for fight of the decade, tonight's matchup between these two superstars is the first Pay Per View boxing event worth the price of admission since the turn of the century. Although I expect this fight to be a war for the ages I can't rule out the possibility that it could be over for Cotto in the first three rounds.

As far as I'm concerned, Cotto has never had a fight that has convinced me of his greatness. He was nearly knocked out by two mediocre fighters in Corley and Torres and in his most impressive victory he spent the last few rounds running away from the 36 year old Shane Mosley. Why was he running? Because if he stood and traded with Sugar he would have been flattened.  It is precisely this weakness that I believe Margarito will exploit. Margarito will be the tallest fighter Cotto has ever faced and probably the busiest. But more than just activity, Margarito offers true Mexican grit. His chin is seemingly indestructible and he doesn't doesn't stop pressuring his opponents until they're on their backs.
 Cotto's only chance in this fight is to box and move and punish Margarito's body. If he can do both of these things succesfully he will most likely win a decision. However he may have been able to do that against Mosley but against a prime and hungry Margarito, no way. He will not be able to hide from the rugged Mexican and he will be forced to fight. He will be outworked and outslugged. He will not survive past the 10th.

The way to bet this fight is 3 units on Margarito by KO at +320 with a 2.3 unit hedge on Cotto by decision at +130. Cotto can't knockout Margarito and Margarito can't win a boxing match against Cotto. At +5200 I would even place a small bet on Margarito to take him out in the first round. Yes, I think he's that hungry. Good luck!

Vladimir Klitschko vs. Tony Thompson

 
July 12, 2008

OUTCOME: Klitschko by KO

ANDY'S PICK: Thompson by KO

THE BET:
2 Units on Thompson to Win at +450

THE PAYOUT:
0 Units

Let me start off by saying that while I think Klitschko has a better chance of beating Tony Thompson than losing, a 7 to 1 favorite he most definitely is not.  For whatever reason, the odds makers have dismissed Thompson's chances of even being competitive in Saturday's bout.  I would make Thompson about a +150 so at +450 you're getting a 200% value in this writer's humble opinion. Thompson's age (36) and anonymity account for a good part of this underestimation, but it must be realized that the Maryland native started boxing in his late 20's and has never really been seen by a national audience.  While the competition he has faced pales in comparison to Klitschko's resume, he has outclassed worthy opponents in Luan Krasnqi, Timor Ibragimov and Dominick Guinn.

Thompson is a tall, skilled boxer with respectable power (60% knockout ratio), a solid chin and a reach that is actually one half inch greater than Klitschko's.  Unlike Vladimir's recent bouts  against smaller opponents with inferior jabs, in Thompson he will be facing a big southpaw who will not simply be kept at bay by the fearsome Ukranian stick. Just like Klitschko crumbled against the 6'5" southpaw, Corey Sanders, I suspect he might be in for a similar evening against Thompson. Once Vladimir realizes his jab will not keep Thompson off of him, he will have to do something that makes him very uncomfortable. He will have to fight. Thompson will have the advantage here and I think there is a chance he will break Klitschko's will. Tony's admirable body work could be the finishing touch in a major upset.  While I certainly don't expect this to be an easy night for Thompson, if he can pressure Klitschko, force him into a brawl and avoid that monster right hand I wouldn't be surprised to see the champ on the seat of his pants by the late rounds.

Call me crazy but aside from his devastation of Lamon Brewster in their rematch I haven't been remotely impressed with Klitschko since his stoppage of Jameel McCline six years ago. In Thompson he is facing a tough and hungry contender who has come out of nowhere to try his hand at dethroning the giant.  I feel like I've seen this movie before. The bet to make here is Thompson to win at+450. Good luck!

Manny Pacquiao vs. David Diaz

June 28, 2008

OUTCOME: Pacquiao by KO

ANDY'S PICK: Pacquiao by KO

THE BET:
7 Units on Pacquiao by KO at -140

THE PAYOUT:
5 Units

I'm not sure why this mismatch is something boxing fans have to pay for but I guess thats how high Pacquiao's stock is these days.  When he meets David Diaz, yes he will be stepping up in weight but he will also be facing a boxer who was knocked out by Kendall Holt, fought to a draw with Ramazan Palyani (who?) and barely got past Ramon Montano (again, who?) in his most recent fight.  Their only common opponent, Erik Morales, was a shell of his former self when Diaz edged him in points, sending him into well deserved retirement.  When a badly undertrained and distracted Pacquiao lost to Morales in their first fight, he was fighting the true Mexican warrior.  He made up for it by summarily destroying him in their next two meetings.

So the only question here is whether Diaz can survive the full twelve.  Based on the Holt fight alone, the answer must be no.  Pacquiao has enough power to put down anyone within 2 divisions of lightweight and Diaz is very hittable.  I expect Diaz to fight valiantly for a few rounds before succumbing to the Pac Man onslaught by the 8th.

The only way I see to bet this fight is Pacquiao by KO at -140.  While the odds are not great I think this outcome is almost a foregone conclusion. Good Luck!

Arthur Abraham vs. Edison Miranda II

June 21, 2008

OUTCOME: Abraham by TKO

ANDY'S PICK: Miranda by Decision

THE BET:
3 Units on Miranda by Decision at +400

THE PAYOUT:
0 Units

Couldn't be more simple. Had it not been for numerous point deductions Miranda would have won the first fight.  Since Abraham is clearly indestructible there will be no knockout.  Miranda has improved since the last fight and has fought stiffer competition.  I expect this to be a very exciting fight and wouldn't be surprised if Miranda tasted the canvas before he slugs his way to a close decision victory.

While the straight win on Miranda pays a respectable +150, the +400 on a decision win is the far better value.  If you want to play it safe a small hedge on a Miranda win might be wise.  Good Luck!